Thursday, November 13, 2008

Something different...looking for a bounce

I came into the morning watching the 8,000 level on the Dow. My hypothesis was since we had sold off ~10% from Monday's high, that level would provide support and a solid bounce.

I was trading the NQ with my Fibonacci lines plotted over the previous day's high to low. I knew my standard 1.382% Fibonacci extension would not coincide with Dow 8,000, so I also plotted the 1.618% and 2.0% extensions. I was looking for a quality setup around one of those areas as the Dow hit 8,000.

As you can see on the chart below, the bounce came almost exactly at the 2.0% extension (black dashed line). Price formed what our friend and past blog contributor Tom C. calls a "U-turn" and staged a violent rally from that level.

I made an aggressive entry as indicated by the white arrow, and sold half my position at the 50% retracement of the previous day's high to low. After chopping around that level the NQ continued to rally and hit the 1.382% extension at the end of the day, where I sold the remainder of my position.

And if that is not an excuse to take Friday off, I don't know what is.



Note - I marked an additional trade with the yellow arrow; frequent readers should be able to figure out the rationale for the entry.


Below is the updated chart from my "Tracking the Dow chart" series (the bounce is marked with a white arrow on the close-up chart):





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7 comments:

  1. Anonymous5:40 PM

    thanks for the heads up on plotting fibs from yestaday's HOD - LOD. used that plotting style to hit FCX as it crossed up thru the .618 retracement area, which was also horizontal R area to the left.

    ive been playing with other fib plots such a low of yesterday that occurred late in the day and would be considered the beginning of the run that includes today's gap up.. so the range is from a low late yesterday to today's ORH 15 minutes.

    QQQBall

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous5:57 PM

    Nicccccceeeeeeeee.

    Tomorrow off? Hell, I would be taking next week off.

    I am interested in the conversation you guys had going on in comments of the last post. I hope you reveal the wizard!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous7:15 PM

    Great trade. Thanks for the analysis.

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  4. Anonymous9:17 AM

    Dow 8000! I saw it way too late. I need to be more thorough in my premarket research. Great blog.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous10:07 AM

    X, Why did you not draw your fibs with the OR low of the current day since it was out of the range of the previous day?

    btw a great trade!
    -thanks in advance

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  6. hypr - the actual open did not gap down below the pd low (it was in yesterday's range); if it had, I would have included it when I plotted my Fibonacci lines.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous10:07 PM

    you seen the new Bond Flick yet?

    QQQBall

    ReplyDelete