Thank you to everyone posting trades and analysis in comments. Just a reminder, please include the symbol, the day of the trade, the timeframe, where you plotted your Fibonacci lines (if applicable), indicators used (for example, moving averages, candlestick patterns, trendlines), where your entry was ("a break of the X bar high/low") and where your exited. And, of course, your reasons for taking the trade as well as any comments or questions.
I've had to omit some comments recently because they lacked a lot of this information, making it impossible for anyone to reference the proper chart.
Thanks, and I'll try to highlight some trades from comments tomorrow or Friday.
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Wrapping Up 2024 and Preparing for the New Year
19 hours ago
20 comments:
Wednesday, both 15-minute charts, both u-turn trades with 8EMA and 5EMA. DF - entry on a break of the 12:15 high. Nice hammer on top of the EMAs, move to the Fibonacci extension. IR - break of the 11:45 high. Again nice hammer on top of the EMAs, move to the Fibonacci extension.
Nice trades Warren. Is everyone trading only 15-minute charts, or is anyone still trading 5-min or 2-min?
Is anyone buying Facebook on Friday?
:)
Leo, I'd say 80% of my trading is 15-min, 20% is 5-min. 2-min is way too fast for me!
I lost money on LEAP Friday, entered on a break of the 4th bar high but it never really took off. Thoughts anyone?
Sean, I assume you are trading the 15-minute chart? The pullback on the 2nd and third bars was too deep - in fact, it pulled back to the morning low. Your entry had you below resistance of the retracement zone, and price never could rally through it. Long story short, you entered a long position below substantial resistance - every now and then those work, but usually they don't.
Great comments.
I am wondering if successful traders here are finding average winner to be two times the average loser or is it different?
TheLearningTrader
Chris, yes 15-minute chart. Many thanks for the analysis, it really helped.
Learning Trader, I risk the same dollar amount on every trade. ie, I adjust my position size in accordance to what my stop would be to ensure a consistent amount on all losers. When I take a trade, since my win rate is above 60%, I am just looking for at least a 1 to 1 with that amount. Hopefully I find trades that are much higher than that, but I've never done a detailed analysis to see where they all fall. My gut tells me my average winner is probably around twice as big as a loser would be, though.
will you guys take C, 15 min, 7th bar low?
its supported by 5 ema
TOYL, I assume you mean C short? I like to see a little more pullback rather than just a flat base, so for me probably not. Having said that if I did I was use a wider stop - maybe the high of the 2nd bar.
Warren
yup i mean C short of the 7th bar low
ah i see what you mean, there isn't a obvious pullback
i thought it was a good trade cuz
1. first bar are quite wide range
2. the only green bar is the 2nd one but can't really pull it back up
3. was under pivot point, and 5 EMAs
also how are you guys consider a pull back vs a reverse and price stalled?
CTSH on 5/7 is the pattern I like, though that entry was late in the day. I find if they move down, pull back to the retracement zone, and then collapse quickly that they will probably hit the Fib extension. But I like nice patterns like CTSH.
Warren
Warren,
CTSH 5 min, 7bar is the entry?
but previous bars have a lot of bottom candle spikes, aren't those like red flags, and more likely they won't react the extension goal?
for example if you see MPEL 30min, 7th bar low(if by chance it break down), will you consider a good candidate (put it under monitor)?
but MPEL, 30min, 4th bar is quite a red flag, so i am not sure how one consider a reverse vs a pull back
Sorry, 5/7 is the date. 15-min chart, entry would have been later in the day when price fell back out of the retracement zone (break of 1:15 low).
Warren
MPEL is more of the pattern I like but I don't usually trade 30-minute charts, and I would be careful as it is getting late in the day.
Warren
Warren,
MPEL, 30min, 7th bar low, does turns out to be a great trade. I didn't trade it but was watching it all along. it does have a longer time frame which is 30 min instead of 15 min, and also late in the trading day that all add to risk factors
i guess the 1st bar was fully red and wide range, , following by very weak bars (2nd and 3rd),
4th bar is kind of red flag but the bulls didn't pull back deep into the first bar (4th and 5th bars together didn't look too bullish)
5 ema as the resistance backup by the bearish 1st bar
7th bar looks good and closed right below the retracement zone
goal is to hold until it hit the extension of fibonacci, which it almost did and closed 50% of the extension zone by the end of the day
Thanks Chris for your response.
TheLearningTrader
Warren, would you have taken JCP Wed? Break of the 6th or 7th bars. A lot like the pattern you pointed out, but not perfect. Thanks!
Graham, seems like JCP was more of a reverse u-turn. It didn't pop up on my watchlist, but seems like a good setup. A little far from the EMAs though.
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