That is the good thing about understanding price movement and technical analysis - it works a lot better than chasing new stuff and bouncing around from method to method.
If you look at the chart of the Nasdaq over the past year, you can see many of the patterns I highlight over the years of posts here. The move from July 13 through the beginning of this year was textbook, with multiple pullbacks to the retracement zone, bounces, and continuations to the Fibonacci extensions (you can easily spot three well-defined patterns on the daily chart).
We are in an interesting place now with price having retraced 100% of the up move from February 5 to March 7. It bounced off that February 5th low (on April 15th), and moved back up towards the previous March high; it currently sits just below that level.
Note the gap from the close of trading on May 23rd to the open on May 27th (the 26th was a holiday) - it coincides perfectly with the retracement zone, and the gap jumped above (or over) the 50% mark. If price can take out the March high, it should move to the 38.2% extension of the February 5 to the March 7 up move* (which would be approximately 4534).
I hope everyone is doing well out there!
*this move is setting up just like the previous up move from December 18 to January 22. You can see that price did almost the same thing there - it retraced 100%, bounced off that December low, and went on to break the January high and move to the 38.2% extension before pulling back.
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30 comments:
Welcome back X. Been too long, hope you are doing well. Look forward to seeing you more. Thank you for the blog.
I thought it was an error in my reader app when I saw a notification of a new Trader-X blog post. Nice to see you're still out there. Hope all is well.
PLEASE tell me you are coming back. My life would be complete. I miss this blog and your writing. By the way, do you still meditate every day?
Anyone has any idea why the trade BLUE failed on its timeframe 13 min, I think the entry is the 5th bar that had a solid green.
Anon, post a chart of what you were looking at.
Holy shit, Trader-X! Was this a drive-by, or are you back to blogging?
Hi Trader-X, I really appreciate your blog. I reread it every few day and begin to grasp some of your wisdom such as 30 minutes charts !
Here are few semi 'X' trades:
SRCL - 30 min. time frame
SDRL - 30 min. time frame
HPQ - 15 min. time frame
Hope you will come back blogging.
All the best (you already have it... at least the freedom to do what you want)
Hi Trader-X, I really appreciate your blog. I reread it every few day and begin to grasp some of your wisdom such as 30 minutes charts !
Here are few semi 'X' trades:
SRCL - 30 min. time frame
SDRL - 30 min. time frame
HPQ - 15 min. time frame
Hope you will come back blogging.
All the best (you already have it... at least the freedom to do what you want)
ops
how can i post pic here?
i actually meant:
Chart: BLUE
Time: 11 min time frame
Entry: 4th bar
thanks
Welcome back X!
Anon, take a screenshot of what you are looking at and upload to imgur.com. It's free, and you will get a url that you can post here.
HI Trader X,
Nice to hear from you. You think yankees will make playoffs?
hector
thanks for telling me how to share photos
here is the BLUE chart for 11 min timeframe
http://imgur.com/YWh8kXh
Thanks
was it a bad entry?
Hi Trader X,
If possible could you go over how to scan for stocks, also, are there industries or sectors you do not trade?
Thanks
Holy crap! I still have you in the roll on my blog, but I didn't expect to see you updated on it, so I'm a little late to the party here!
Great to hear from you and hope all is well!
-AT
Hey Anon, that BLUE entry was actually not bad per se. But, see the tails on those next three bars at the morning high? That should have told you it was having trouble getting through that level, and was probably not going to make it. In hindsight I would have sold on a break of the seventh bar's low for a small loss and - if I was feeling aggressive, gone short at that point.
I know it's kind of like catching a falling knife but what is the reason or logic shorting at that point in BLUE?
It's because it's close to the opening high and have chance to move back to retracement zone?
Anon, I think it's a risk/reward thing. If you have a stock try and repeatedly fail to break through a previous high, there is a good chance it will fall back or at least move sideways (making it a low risk entry). If it pulls back and doesn't bounce at the retracements, then it will probably re-test the previous swing low.
The risk is low, though, because you can put your stop just above the high that it failed to break through.
Hi X, I've been following your blog for years. can you write some words about how you are doing? are you still trading, etc.
I'm still here. Trader-X was my mentor, now I mentor people on Trader-X's style. I always refer them here and tell them to review ALL the archives and never stop. I love reviewing them. Never take this site down, although I have most of the charts saved on a hard drive.
X come on! post a chart from time to time...u still have a lot of fans out there!
Hi Trader X,
Good to see your post, follow your method, and post examples to friends daily! Thanks so much for your help and hope goes well!
BL
Hey X,
Big Mahalo for the blog.
Are there any updates to scanner resources you can let us in on? Most of the stock scanner options in the strategy description are no longer in existence.
Aloha.
Hello, please come back ! You inspired all of us !!
Not sure if anyone is still out there but thought I'd give it a shot.
I was looking at charts this morning from yesterday and wondered if anyone could tell me the warning signs of this trade.
I would have entered at the break of the 4th bar with then plummeted. First candle does have a tail and the second candle is a big red one but the third candle is a BIG green one (off setting bars). No doubt I would have entered on the 5th bar as it broke the 4th bar high.
Would I have just lost money or should I have paid attention to the warnings?
What do you think?
http://www.finalexpense.guru/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-2014-12-06-at-11.04.13-AM.png
X,
I must have missed the notification for this last posting. Fortunately, for me, I re-read your blog every few months. So I was very happy to see you're still alive and kicking.
You've done so much for myself and others. You are what the Internet is supposed to be about.
I always struggled with the emotional side of trading; therefore, I still have not found consistent success. (But I'm still trying.)
I wanted to publicly thank you. I know I am a better person for having studied your blog.
Thank you, X. Thank you, thank you, thank you. I hope you enjoy a long and happy life.
loanme5 (and everyone else), thanks for the kind words!
Best of luck to everyone in 2015!
Still the best blog ever and not just about trading. I see the minimalist movement is catching more converts. Thanks again for the blog and your generosity over the years.
Many thanks for the kind words QQQBall and everyone else!
X, you still out there? please make a post or reach out somehow!!
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