2010 is coming...

Posted by Tom C.

It seems I get more requests for my longer term trades than my daytrades. To be sure, the majority of people come to the blog to see X's daytrading...but the people who email want to see some swing-trade examples!

AAPL is a trade I initiated earlier this year, and it has done quite well. I am holding it into 2010 but will [most likely] sell on the first weekly bearish candle setup.

AAPL turned bullish (in my mind) at the end of May when it crossed the 50% level of the previous year's high to low; for the next five weeks it tested that 50% level as support. Price formed a hammer on top of that level at the beginning of July, and I entered on a break of the hammer (indicated by the black arrow). As I stated earlier, I am holding the position into 2010 and will plot my new Fibonacci lines over 2009's low to high*. I will watch to see if AAPL makes new highs and moves toward the FE of the new, 2009 Fibonacci lines (my target to close the position), or reverses and pulls back (at which case I will take my profits).



All the best as we wrap up 2009 and head into 2010. May the New Year bring joy, happiness, profitability, and maybe a few more Tom C. posts.

*as always, credit goes to TRADEthemove.com where I learned to frame price in this manner.

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My monthly post?

Posted by Tom C.

I am still toying with the idea of blogging on a more consistent basis - but the cons outweigh the pros. I have until X's return in June to fill space on the blog - maybe 2010 will be more motivational than 2009 when it comes to blogging.

I wanted to revisit the longer-term view of the major indexes. The S&P (I use SPY as a proxy) has been stuck in a range since the end of August, but looks like it is trying to break out as of the last few weeks (the blue line is the 100MA). This week's price closed above the 50% level of the previous year's high/low, so an end of year rally may be in the works.



The Dow (I use DIA as a proxy) also closed above the 50% level this week. Nasdaq (I use QQQQ as a proxy) has fared the best, with price crossing the 50% level in mid-July and rallying 10% to close solidly above the retracement zone (RZ) over the past few months.





Note - I don't trade any of the major indexes, I just look at them weekly because I like to know what is happening in the broader, bigger picture.

2nd note - as always, credit goes to TRADEthemove.com where I learned to frame price in this manner.

On to a longer-term trade I did make this year. GLD opened the year in the RZ, but below the 50% level. Price rallied above that mark in the 3rd week, and I watched for a pullback. At the end of February, price began to pullback and in mid to late-April it bounced off support at the 50% level (previous resistance becomes support). I entered on a break of the 04/12/09 week's high (black arrow), and held until price hit the Fiboancci extension (FE) two weeks ago. I actually added to my position on a trendline (black line) break at the end of August. My best trade of the year, with a 30%+ gain.



I hope everyone has had a great 2009, and I wish everyone all the best in 2010. I will try to make another post or two in December, but no promises.

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