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>>> TRADETHEMOVE.COM - 2007 UPDATE

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Friday, December 07, 2007

est. 2007

I promised Tom C. that I would make one more post - IF he started his own blog.

It looks like he has gone and done it - though there are only two posts up so far. I have high hopes for him, and will be checking back often.

I also wanted to say thank-you to everyone out there for all of your comments and well wishes via this blog and email - it means a lot to me. And I wish you all the very best in the coming New Year and beyond.

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Thursday, June 14, 2007

Goodbye, Farewell, Amen...

She can't stop shaking I can't stop touching her and...
This time when kindness falls like rain
It washes her away and Anna begins to change her mind
"These seconds when I'm shaking leave me shuddering for days," she says
And I'm not ready for this sort of thing...

- Counting Crows, "Anna Begins"


I have enjoyed "blogging" for a long time - even before it was known as "blogging". I did my thing on my own site for several years before moving to Blogger, and when I moved to Blogger my readership exploded. I am fortunate to have made a lot of friends through this medium, and I hope along the way I have helped a person or two.

I have seen many blogs come and go over the years, and I think it is time for me to go. Priorities change and life sometimes has a way of making you wonder what it is all about.

Maybe I will search for that answer, and if I ever find it I will come back and let you guys know.

I am leaving the blog up so anyone can reference it. Who knows, one day I may drop back by with a new post. Then again, maybe not.

You can always check out the great blogs on my Blogroll; I told Tom C. he should start his own and if he does he will contact some of the other bloggers to let you guys know where to find him.

I apologize for the abrupt ending - but then again, aren't all endings abrupt? Thanks to everyone for everything.

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WCC - 061307; 10-minute chart

posted by Tom C:

WCC is a variation of Trader-X's "bread and butter" set-up; it had more risk as the first 4 bars broke below the 50% retracement of the previous day's low to the OR high (a deeper pullback than I prefer). But the 5th-9th bars rallied to close back above the retracement zone, and the 9th bar printed a nice hammer candle at support from the 5MA.

I entered on a break of the 9th bar high looking for a target of the Fibonacci extension; it was not reached, and I closed the position at the end of the day.



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Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Something different...

posted by Tom C:

IDIX gapped up this morning, and after a brief one bar rally it promptly collapsed. I plotted my Fibonacci lines over the previous day's low to the OR High (I used the high of the second bar).

Price fell through and closed below the retracement zone with the 13th bar. The 14th and 15th bars pulled back to resistance from the retracement zone and the 5 and 34MA's, and the 15th bar was weak with an upper tail.

I entered on a break of the 15th bar low, and covered at the Fibonacci extension. As X would say, this was a low-priced stock with good volume and the total return for the move was just under 8%.



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Monday, June 11, 2007

Life goes on?

I know a few of you come here for charts and technical analysis, but the vast majority visit the blog to get my take on news, entertainment, and pop-culture! I am proud to know that I turned many of you onto life-changing shows like "Entourage", "The Shield", "24", "South Park", and of course the best movie of all time "Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle"!

As everyone knows, The Sopranos ended last night. The initial reaction from most is anger - people are pissed off because they wanted more. They wanted closure, or at least a lot of violence where everyone (or almost everyone) got killed. 99% of us thought our cable went out during the last 60 seconds - don't kid yourself...you were looking at your TV, looking at your remote, and asking WTF happened to the cable/satellite?

My first reaction to the ending was "that sucks". But as some time passed, I changed my opinion; the ending was actually very fitting. Before I get into it, what most people fail to realize - especially people who just jumped on the "bandwagon" during the last few seasons - is that The Sopranos was never a show about violence and killing. Sure, there were some brilliant flashes of that stuff over the years, but at its core The Sopranos was about Tony - a father, a tortured son, an imperfect husband, a person struggling with depression and other mental issues, and head of a crime family. It was about his trials and tribulations in each of those areas as he moved through life. And for the most part, we liked him. Sure he was a cold-blooded killer...but no one can argue that despite his shortcomings and moral deficit he really did care about his family. And a few times every season he did things that made you think "hey, he could have been a good guy given different circumstances".

So most of the people who complain don't get what the show was about - they just wanted to see two mafia families kill each other in a bloody, violent, tragic end.

"You probably don't even hear it when it happens, right?" - Bobby Bacala

Fade to black. There are really only two things that could have happened at the end - life goes on for The Sopranos, much as it started with the family sitting around the table for dinner, trying to be as normal as they could for the family that they are.

Or, Tony was shot in the head as Meadow walked through the door to the diner (shout out to Bloomfield, for all my NJ readers - did you guys catch that?).

What do I think? First, I know anything can happen if they decide to make a movie or add to the show...the ending was such that Chase could craft any kind of continuing storyline he wants. But, if you look at the episode - and the series - for what it is without speculating on the future, then (in my opinion) it is obvious that Tony was killed.

Bobby's words from two episodes back - also highlighted at the end of last week's episode - were foreshadowing to the event. David Chase built the tension in all of us during the last 5-minutes; we were looking at the situation through Tony's eyes...understanding what it was like to be in his shoes. What about the guy in the hat? What about the guy at the counter who got up and went to the bathroom? What about the guy that walked in before A.J.? What about the two black guys (long time viewers - remember the last time two black guys tried to kill Tony?)? It was tense, and you were on the edge of your seat just like me. Every time the door to the diner opened and the bell rang, we all said "f*ck".

I think the last time the door opened Tony looked up and saw Meadow walking in - and then he was shot in the head. There was no sound because we were seeing things from Tony's point of view - he would not have heard the gunshot before the bullet killed him (physics, people). Things would simply fade to black. You probably don't even hear it when it happens, right?

Sure, "Don’t Stop Believin’" was playing on the jukebox - but that is not enough to sway me. It was a brilliant choice, however. And A.J. telling Tony "Isn't that what you said one time, try to remember the times that were good?"...a nice touch.

But Tony took one to the head.

There were other loose ends to discuss - is Paulie a rat? Did he flip? His actions and everything he did - and didn't do - point to yes, and Tony probably should have killed him on the boat earlier this season. And what was with the cat? Was it a reincarnated Adriana? Or Christopher? Or did it drive home the "rat analogy" because it was stalking Paulie?

But back to the ending - I can actually see my scenario playing out if they ever make a movie. Picture this - Tony was killed in front of his family. Fast forward five years...A.J. took it the hardest, and harnessed all of that bitterness and anger and ultimately killed the people that killed his father. And once he started down that road, there was no turning back...it became his life, and he worked his way up. The movie (or series) could pick-up with him as a Captain, and fully immersed and following in Tony's footsteps. Hell, that could be another 8 years worth of shows right there.

So, in the end I thought it was a fitting end to a great series.

note - it was great to see Phil get clipped. That was closure we all needed.



“I think people can relate to a lot of these characters. They say, 'Oh, I am sort of like that, and my kids go through stuff like that, and I had to deal with that.' And then Tony Soprano goes and kills somebody.” - Edie Falco

“Tony Soprano is an everyday kind of guy, bringing up teen-agers, having a daughter, trying to get her into a good school. God, half of America can deal with that.” - Lorraine Bracco

"To the people I love. Nothing else matters." - Tony Soprano

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Sunday, June 10, 2007

Weekend reading...

OONR7 launched his blog - check it out here.

Flatwallet has some good things going on at his blog - check it out here.

And I mentioned this earlier in the week, but for those that missed it check out Trader Mike's recent interview.

Check out my links on the lower right for more cool stuff...

note - there are some good comments on this post...check them out.

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Friday, June 08, 2007

Very cool...

Watch them in order...





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ACAS - 060807; 15-minute chart



1.) What did I see?
A gap down and wide-range, weak first bar. The second-fourth bars narrow in range and consolidate in the lower half of the first bar's range. They all leave long upper tails (bearish), and there is overhead resistance from a declining 5MA. The fifth bar is weak with a long upper tail, and closes at the OR low.
2.) What is the entry?
A break of the fifth bar low.
3.) What is the exit?
The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's high to the OR low; it was hit eight bars later.

Set-up grade = "B-" because the trigger bar closed at the OR low as opposed to below it.

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Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Beyond the Fibonacci extension...

posted by Tom C:

I mentioned earlier this week that I have been taking a lot of these set-ups lately, and ETFC was a nice opportunity today.

Price gapped up and rallied above the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high. The 8th bar closed above that level, and the 9th bar formed a hammer at support from the same level and a rising 5MA. The only negative was that the hammer closed red, not green.

I entered on a break of the 9th bar high and sold as the last bar of the day took out the previous bar's low. My criteria for selling was a bar closing below the 5MA, and the next bar breaking that bar's low. That criteria was not met until the end of the day.



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Hump-day humor

Note - if you are offended by people making fun of the Bush Administration's handling of the Iraq War, save yourself the frustration and don't watch the video.

Everyone else...enjoy!



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Tuesday, June 05, 2007

SWIR - 060507; 15-minute chart



SWIR is a variation of my classic "bread and butter" set-up - a set-up I don't trade much anymore because the reliability has dropped. But I could not pass it up today...

You can do a search for "bread and butter" at the top of the page, but basically it is a gap with a pullback to the retracement zone and a bounce at that level with the trend resuming in the direction of the original gap.

SWIR gapped up, fell back to the retracement zone, and printed a hammer with the sixth bar. There was also support from a rising 5MA. I did not take a break of the sixth bar high, but instead waited to see what the seventh bar did; it printed a narrow-range bar (the narrowest of the morning (NRM)) and I entered on a break of its (the seventh bar's) high.

The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high, and it was hit three bars later. I sold 1/2 of my position at that point, and held the remaining 1/2 because of the strength and range expansion of the ninth and tenth bars. After a brief pullback and another hammer (twelfth bar), SWIR resumed the rally and I closed the remainder of the position at the end of the day.

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FRPT - 060407; 10-minute chart

posted by Tom C:

I have been catching a lot of "beyond the Fibonacci extension set-ups" lately. FRPT was a good example - it gapped down and left a hanging-man set-up on the 5th bar, but I missed it. The 11th bar broke below the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's high to the OR low, and the 12th bar was weak and left a long upper tail at resistance from the declining 5MA.

I entered on a break of the 12th bar low, and covered on a break of the 26th bar high (marked on the chart).



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Monday, June 04, 2007

Welcome to a new week!

I remember when I served 3-5 for downloading Iron Maiden songs from a file sharing site back in 2001. Now the man is trying to stick it to this guy:

"US FEDERAL authorities have charged a Chicago man with copyright violations for allegedly uploading several episodes of Fox's "24" on the internet before the show's season premiere earlier this year.

Jorge Romero, 24, used a web site to download the first four episodes of the sixth season of "24" and then uploaded them to LiveDigital.com, according to a federal complaint filed in Los Angeles on Friday.

The episodes appeared online more than a week before their television debuts on January 14 and 15.

Mr Romero was charged with one felony count of uploading copyrighted material to a publicly accessible computer network knowing the work was intended for commercial distribution.

He has agreed to surrender at the US District Courthouse in Chicago on Tuesday, when arrangements will be made for his travel to Los Angeles, Department of Justice spokesman Thom Mrozek said.

It was not immediately known whether Mr Romero had retained an attorney. Email and phone calls to addresses listed in court documents as Mr Romero's were not immediately returned.

If convicted, Mr Romero faces a maximum of three years in prison."

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Sunday, June 03, 2007

A few charts...

I am just getting my technical problems resolved. Suffice it to say that lightning strike + power spike + non-working surge protector = very bad results.

Here is a short from Thursday. Answer the three questions on your own. There were a few opportunities for a more aggressive entry above the OR low.



Here is the chart for Tom C.'s MICC trade Friday. See his post here.



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Friday, June 01, 2007

Friday's charts

posted by Tom C:

Today begins and ends with MICC for me. Look at the 8th bar on the 10-minute chart, and the 12th bar (above the Fibonacci extension set-up).

X is working out some technical issues, so I will (or he will) post this chart over the weekend.

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It's Friday...

I had some serious technical issues yesterday, but look for a few charts from me over the weekend. And I am sure Tom C. will have a chart or two.

Finish the week strong and make some good trades.

Cool stuff:
> Is the Loch Ness Monster real? I report, you decide.
> Tiny animals on fingers...

edit - what are you guys using for bookmarks? Do you still store them on your computer (browser), or are you using del.icio.us or Yahoo! or some other Web-based tool?

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007

BIDU - 053007; 15-minute chart



BIDU offered an interesting opportunity today. It gapped down but rallied and moved back up through the retracement zone from the previous day's high to the OR low. The twelfth bar broke above the previous day's high, and the thirteenth through fifteenth bars consolidated above that level. The fifteenth bar formed a textbook hammer, and also had support from the rising 5MA.

I entered on a break of the fifteenth bar high, and sold six bars later at the Fibonacci extension.

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WNG - 052907; 10-minute chart

posted by Tom C:

I would have preferred an entry just above the OR high (as opposed to the white space between the OR high and the actual entry), but I was compelled to take this trade anyway. Price gapped up, moved above the OR high, and consolidated. The 11th bar was narrow range, but green as it moved off the 5MA (note how during the consolidation, price drifted into the 5MA and found support there with the 8th-11th bars).

My entry was a break of the 11th bar high, and I sold at the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high.



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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Loss, Strain, and Butterflies*

My good friend Estocastica decided to retire from blogging and I wish him well. We all have priorities that change, and blogging can be a thankless job - his need to focus on other things is understandable and admirable.

Esto was always good to me - so much so that I often wondered if I was secretly sending him money to talk me up! Most of you were avid readers of his blog - as was I. I learned a lot from him and should he ever decided to come back I will welcome him and put him back on my daily "must read"! Or, if he wants to make some posts on this blog, he always has an open door!

Speaking of which, I also learned a lot from Estocastica's contributor - OONR7. As with Esto, he is always welcome to contribute here! He has a unique approach, and I think it would fit well with Tom C and myself...

Now to blog stuff:

There will be some changes over the next few weeks at the "Trader-X blog" - all for the better I hope! Tom C. is going to start posting 10-minute charts, as he has adapted his trading to that timeframe and done very well with it over the past 60 days.

As for me, my posts have always had a laser-like focus...my intent was to provide consistent set-ups so that you - the reader - could see things working over and over and it would hopefully benefit your trading. But my posts here are just a subset of the trading I do, and I plan to share more of my methods in the days ahead. So stay tuned.

Finally, I have been talking with Victoria from Victoria's Box - she is trying to decide how to move forward with her blog, as it is not her top priority and she is concerned about her inconsistent posting patterns. I told her that she can post charts here on a weekly basis, and keep her blog going for the soft porn...that should appease most of her readers!!! Hopefully she will be on board in the next few weeks, because she posts some interesting charts...if you have not checked out her blog, go take a look.

PS - I hope you are feeling better DAA!



* the first one that gets this reference (from the title of this post) gets a free Happy Meal from McDonalds...
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