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Monday, June 04, 2012

Facebook, summer vacation, and tad

It looks like my downside Facebook target is getting closer - just a dollar shy at today's low!

As June arrives, I am going to take some time off to travel, enjoy the sun, and take care of some family matters. I'll be back later this summer, so check back or subscribe to the feed (top of the page "Subscribe to the Trader-X blog") to be notified when posting resumes.

Finally, I've been telling my readers about "The T.A.D. Principle" for years (see my post in 2006) , and I just finished reading the new version they released (you can get through it in about an hour). It is on a completely different level from the previous edition, and represents more of an exploration of the things we do that make us unhappy, and what we need to do to find happiness in ourselves as opposed to looking for it externally. If you purchased in the past, you get this new version free. If you have never explored "tad", I highly recommend you do - it could have a big impact on your outlook and your life, and it is well worth the effort.

tad - happiness revealed:  insights on thoughts, actions, and destiny


Thursday, May 31, 2012

A trade from Chris...

"CIEN, 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the opening range. Price chopped around the retracement zone and then formed a nice hammer on top of it at 11:45, with support from the 5EMA. I exited at the Fibonacci extension, and re-entered on a break of the 1:30 hammer bar for a "beyond the Fibonacci extension" setup. I exited at $13.50 for a nice gain."


Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Looking at Facebook

Since there is a lot of talk in comments about FB, I thought it would be interesting to look at the action of the first 8 days.

If you plot Fibonacci lines over the first and second day, you can see that - after the short-lived bounce on day 2 - price gapped down below the low and then tested that low as resistance multiple times over days 3-6. It then started a three day move down that culminated with price nailing the Fibonacci extension and breaking below it late today.

I offer no predictions, but it seems to be at a decisive point here. It can either form a "Beyond the Fibonacci extension" setup and move down to the $24-$25 range, or it can retake the 100EMA with the potential to make it back to the retracement zone.

Tomorrow will be interesting to watch. All in all, I'm glad I avoided the Facebook hype!


Thursday, May 24, 2012

VMW - 052412

Charles posted this trade in comments - check out his analysis here, as well as other trades and more Facebook talk!


Friday, May 18, 2012

LBTYA - 051812

Friday's trade brought to you by Warren:

"Shorted LBTYA on a break of the 13th bar. It was a nice pattern that gapped down, pulled back, and then broke back through the previous low of the morning. The trigger bar closed below the morning low, had a long upper tail, and resistance from the 8EMA. Covered at the Fibonacci extension at the end of the day. 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the first 30-minutes range."


Trade the charts!

Let the comments from the last post be a lesson to us all - there is a reason we trade the charts and don't make predictions!

Sorry to those who commented - if it makes you feel better, I expected more from it too!


Thursday, May 17, 2012

Facebook sets IPO price at $38 a share

Any bets on what it will open at, or the high of the first 30 minutes of trading? Closest answer gets the satisfaction of being the closest answer! Read the article here.

There have been a lot of good trades and discussion in the "comments" of the last few posts - I have not had time to cull through them and post charts, but I'll try to get a few up tomorrow or Saturday.


Monday, May 14, 2012

GRPN - 051412

Very insightful comments over the past few days - a lot of good trades and analysis, so check them out.

Here is a trade from Brian:

"Started the week out with a nice trade. GRPN, 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the opening range. Price pulled back to the 61.8% line which was a little deep, but it recovered and I entered on a break of the 14th bar when it crossed back above the 38.2% line. It had support from the 5 and 8EMAs, and I rode it to $12 where it stalled out."


Wednesday, May 09, 2012

Mid-week madness

Thank you to everyone posting trades and analysis in comments. Just a reminder, please include the symbol, the day of the trade, the timeframe, where you plotted your Fibonacci lines (if applicable), indicators used (for example, moving averages, candlestick patterns, trendlines), where your entry was ("a break of the X bar high/low") and where your exited. And, of course, your reasons for taking the trade as well as any comments or questions.

I've had to omit some comments recently because they lacked a lot of this information, making it impossible for anyone to reference the proper chart.

Thanks, and I'll try to highlight some trades from comments tomorrow or Friday.


Thursday, May 03, 2012

ADM - 050112

In the comments of the previous post, there is good analysis of trades in the following ADM chart, including discussion on targets, when to exit, and second entries. There are also many additional trades discussed - I will let you pull those charts up on your own.

Here is the ADM chart - refer to the comments of the previous post for analysis.

I am still enjoying Spring, so posting will be sparse for a while. But that should not keep you from going through, and participating in, the comments section!


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

A short week

I'm taking time off to enjoy the Spring. Here is a trade from Chris, and I'll see you guys (maybe) next week!

"BHI was a gap up. 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the first three bars opening range. I didn't like the high tail on the third bar, but the trigger bar (5th bar) filled it in as it was a strong, green bar. I entered on a break of that bar's high and exited at the Fibonacci extension. What I call a classic X trade, though it may not meet your strict definition."


Sunday, April 22, 2012

A trade from Dan...

As noted in the previous post, I am taking a few days off to enjoy Spring so I am behind on looking through comments. Here is a trade and question from Dan on Thursday:

"I traded EBAY on a 15-minute chart, Fibonacci lines over the first three bars. I entered on a break of the third bar high, and sold at the Fibonacci extension. The only red flag was the bar was a bit far away from the 5 and 8EMAs, so I am not sure if that meant most would pass on it. The price action of the first three bars was strong, though, so I thought the risk worthwhile. I appreciate any feedback."


Friday, April 20, 2012

It's Friday!

I took a few days off this week and will take a few off next week, so I haven't had time to cull through comments and look for charts to post. If I get a few minutes this weekend, I will try to highlight a few trades.

I hope you have wonderful Spring weather wherever you are, and have a great weekend!


Monday, April 16, 2012

Charts from "comments"

There have been some good trades discussed in the comments over the past few posts. Here are a few charts - please reference the comments of the last post for details. Both trades are from last week.


Tuesday, April 10, 2012

More on Instagram

Following up on yesterday's post, this graph is simply amazing. Under 10 employees and 30 million users. New world.