posted by Trader-X:
No, I didn't get in on MOV...it was on my list, but moving way too fast with wide spreads. It is a nice chart to look at though!
Post your thoughts and trades. Charts later today.
__________
Tags:
Trader-X, Stocks, Fibonacci, MOV
Delayed reaction Episodic Pivots
3 days ago
18 comments:
posted by Tom C:
Great morning for me - more set-ups this morning than anytime in the past week. I will post some of my charts tonight. RMBS on the long side was a standout, NOVL on the short side. But there were several great trades.
For some reason this morning all the setups I've picked have fizzled out and I got stopped out of all of them.
I took JWN on a break of the 2nd bar high.
I took JCP on a break of the 3rd bar high, saw that it was in error (longer upper shadows on 1st, 2nd & 3rd bars). Luckily I sold it for a small profit when the 4th bar was starting to fade.
I took WFR on a break of the 2nd bar high and got stopped out on the low of the 3rd bar.
I guess that brings me to this question. How do you set your stops and how do you move your stops up (if at all)? From what I've tried, today and in the past, I usually move my stops up to the low of the most recent 30 min bar. I guess that just didn't work today :)
-Dave
posted by Tom C:
FYI - RMBS was 15-minute, NOVL 30-minute.
Dave-
I assume you were trading all 30-minute? I can only tell you why I didn't trade them:
I don't think those first two bars on JWN were bullish - that 2nd bar was a doji and is very indecisive. The first bar had a long upper tail.
JCP - I see what you saw, and it was a better set-up than JWN. I did not look at it because of the three long upper tails...we all know X says bullish if price breaks them, but I don't prefer to see one on every bar of the morning! If you look at the 30-minute RMBS chart, that 3rd bar closed strong...otherwise, it would have been just like JCP.
WFR - first bar indecisive with long lower and upper tail. The hammer 2nd bar also had an upper tail, although it was small.
FYI - I know you guys are waiting on a new filter X is working on. Just so you know, JWN and WFR would have been "filtered" off the list. I know he said he wanted to test if for a month, so that would be mid-June.
posted by Tom C:
correction - both trades I referenced above...RMBS and NOVL...were 15-minute charts.
I am flipping back and forth so much lately, I am having a hard time keeping up with my timeframes!!!
Eh.. slow day for me. Entered GILD on the break of the 2nd bar (30min), but got stopped out on the 4th bar. I guess I should have taken the upper wick of the 3rd bar more seriously.
IFO - break off 3rd bar high (30min). Setup seemed good, but I got stopped out on the sixth bar. Damn Slippage. Should've widened my stop, but oh well.
Tom C or X, would either of you have gone in on these 2 positions?
posted by Tom C:
Dave C - how did you get stopped out on IFO? That trade is still going strong! The low of the entry (third) bar was not taken out...
Regarding GILD, no...I don't like going long red "hammer-type" bars like that...had it been green though (with no upper tail...)
Dave, for that it's worth I am in JCP (though I do see Tom's point about all three bars having upper tails). Since price closed above the OR high (2nd and 3rd bars), my stop is if price closes back below the OR high. It has not - the sixth bar penetrated it, but rallied to close back above it. So, I will see how it plays out the rest of the afternoon - I may still get stopped!
Tom makes a good point about the doju on the JWN chart.
I hate picking "winners" but getting stopped out because I had a horrible entry price.
I actually got in at 29.00 (.20) higher than the break of the 3rd bar, so I adjusted my stop a little higher than the 3rd bar low :(
And with me getting stopped out of GILD, I was a little trigger-happy to get out of what it seemed to be a losing position at the time in IFO
I guess I am going to downsize my size next time I get such horrible slippage and adjust it so that my total risk will be at the entry bar low/high.
Dang it! I would rather have picked a "loser" than a winner that I got out of prematurely.
Does anybody use Schwab's Streetsmart Pro? How do you set up your screens?
Also X and Tom C, thanks for reviewing the trades that others have posted. It helps us understand why you wouldn't take a trade, which I think is just as important as why you do.
An addendum to my post... I really really NEED to make decisions at the CLOSE of a candle. I am finding myself exiting a position mid-bar when it triggers my stop instead of evaluating at the close of the bar.
IFO would have been a good case for this method as I would have stayed in, but if I had waited until the close of my exit bar of GILD, I would have been out another .20 ontop of my stop-loss.
posted by Trader-X:
Lots of good stuff on comments lately - thanks for all of your contributions Tom C!
Dave - I understand what you are saying about making a decision at the close of a candle, but be careful. Sometimes price just keeps falling and you will lose a lot more vs. closing when it triggers your stop. What Charles was saying is that since price had closed above the OR high, his stop was now a close back BELOW the OR high vs. the original stop he had in place. He does this because that OR is a significant technical level, and price may test it before resuming the trend.
So, be careful. I would suspect other than the above instance, Charles closes positions when his stop is triggered and does not wait for the close of the bar.
Charles - correct me if I am wrong.
posted by Tom C:
If you are keeping score, I closed IFO. I actually closed 1/2 for $1, and 1/2 when it broke the 1:30 bar low...that candle was a "hanging man", plus I am ready to take off for the afternoon. Have a good day all!
Hi X,
Thanks for your insight. So you generally exit a position once it triggers your stop even if it's mid-bar? There are too many times where I would exit as prices trigger my stop only to see it rally and form a nice hammer and move up after that. Those trades are the toughest for me to swallow as I kick myself for not staying in (like IFO today)....
BUT, there are also instances where I'm glad I got out when my stop triggered (GILD today).
Ah, decisions, decisions :Þ
i got rmbs, and am very excited. mov was a monster wow but i did not trade it.
Trader-X, you are 100% correct.
And, JCP took off. I sold +.70 but short of the target because I have to get ready for a trip..
I owe you a lot Trader-X. Thanks for sharing so generously. Though you could probably sell this stuff and make a pretty penny.
I am off tomorrow. Good luck to all you traders.
Thanks Charles...if you REALLY want to pay me, remember you can always give to Good Karma.
Comments on JWN set up happended on 06/01/06 indicate, it's not a good set up because 2nd bar was a doji and is very indecisive and thefirst bar had a long upper tail.
Please refer to the chart of DOX posted on 04/27/06. Except for body of 2nd bar is green (still vey narrow range body with long wicks). It's indicated as a setup to go long. I am getting confused with little variations in the same kind of setup. I am learning a lot from your blog. Thanks. Sam
Hey Sam, there are some small but probably important differences...one is the size of the gap - much greater in DOX. And it gapped up from a narrow and flat base. Also, although it was a Doji it closed green. But it also probably has to do with the set-ups available that day...if there were few, then DOX was more bullish. Where as on the day JWN happened, there were a lot of good set-ups so this was classified as mediocre and passed by...
Just my .02. TJ
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