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Monday, August 07, 2006

Welcome to a new trading week!

My week started off full of challenges. I had some technical difficulties this morning, and as a result I am not trading today.

And, Tom C. is out until Tuesday.

If you have any good trades, post them in "Comments" and if I have time later I will look through and try to find a chart to post.

In the meantime, here is some interesting reading:

1.) StockTickr did an interview with our friend Kernan from TRADEthemove.com.
2.) BusinessWeek has a good article on Digg.com.
3.) A soft U.S. economy perplexes Fed.
4.) Jamie over at Wall St. Warrior has a good post on Pivot Point Analysis.

Laugh of the day:
"We're giving a shout out to Mel Gibson for our next song. Not for any reason in particular. But maybe if I claimed I was drunk on stage when I made my comments a few years ago [about George W. Bush], people might not have been as upset with us."

- Dixie Chicks leader singer Natalie Maines, introducing their song White Trash Wedding at a recent concert.

Even if you don't like country, support the Dixie Chicks:



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9 comments:

5150 said...

Slim pickens today....went long KND break of 6th bar (30 min) small loss....Gonna lay low for the rest of day. Hope others had more success.

Anonymous said...

X, I took a short in TNS off a break of the 3rd bar low. Even though the 3rd bar closed green, it was weak and left a long upper tail. Price had already broken the OR low, and I saw this as a retrace to test resistance before continuing down. The trade netted over 7%.

TJ

5150 said...

I saw that TNS trade. I didnt take it because the average daily volume is 150,000. Nice trade....

Anonymous said...

HANS break of the OR low was a good short today.

Anonymous said...

Hi TJ,

I wanted to say thanks again for the time you took to analyze my trades from last week. I am trying to put your suggestions into effect today - position sizing and no afternoon trades.

Congrats on TNS. I was looking at it for a break below the 4th candle, however I missed it when my boss decided to stop and chat. Unfortunately, I traded EMMS a bit later when it broke below the 9th bar and was stopped out on the 14th. My loss was smaller than usual though thanks to position sizing.

I do have a question about your comments on my ALVR trade last week if you have the time.

You wrote: "ALVR - you made money. You said it showed weakness at the 1/2 point, and I see that it did encounter some resistance. I look for an actual sell signal at this area, and personally did not see one."

I was wondering what the "actual sell signal" is. I got out when I saw the 6th candle break below the 5th. Should I have been looking for something else, like a close below?

Thanks again for your time and keep up the good trades.

John

Anonymous said...

Hi John. EMMS today the standard X disclaimer applied - it was above the OR low!!!

Regarding your question, if I am long I am looking for a signal to close the position. That signal to me would be the same as if I was not in the position and looking to short it. So, if I see a long tail at resistance, or another bearish candle formation that would cause me to go short (were I not already in the position), I would close my long.

And vice versa if I was short and looking for a reason to close that position.

Hope that makes sense.

TJ

John Wheatcroft said...

Made a comment the other day and got called on it so I'll try to expand then shut up.

When I say "watch the market" I'm not talking about in general I'm talking about the 4 minute charts. I use the SPY because it is more predictive and if I see it topping or bottoming I'm pretty sure my trade will be next. Price action is price action regardless where it comes from.

I watch the VIX also on the 4 minute charts. It is rather obvious as far as tops and bottoms are concerned and it generally front runs the market by a little.

Take a look at today's vix and spy around 3 P.M. There was a huge impulse move on the vix (up) this was followed by a hanging man. Experience tells me that the next move is 80% down and that if I were short it would be a good time to start looking for an exit. If you look at the SPY at the same time on the 4 minute basis you will see an opposing move - huge impulse down followed by an impulse up. As it turned out the SPY finished the last hour up and the vix down. But it didn't take a rocket scientist to know that would happen at 3 P.M.

OK - that said what I'm not saying is that you should use these as "trading signals" because price is indeed the factor you need to watch. What I am saying is that you could use these as early warning signals to aid you in getting in and out of trades.

Trader-X said...

"Made a comment the other day and got called on it so I'll try to expand then shut up."

John, your comments are always welcome. Just because it is not how I trade does not mean it is not valuable.

Jamie said...

Thanks X, appreciate the support!