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Wednesday, April 18, 2007

OSG - 041807; 15-minute chart

1.) What did I see?
A gap up and strong first bar. Price pulls back to the rising 5MA where it finds support, reverses, and resumes the uptrend.
2.) What is the entry?
A high risk entry was a break of the sixth bar high*. The sixth bar formed a hammer-type candle at the 5MA, but it was below the opening range (OR) high. A more conservative entry was a break of the ninth bar high. The ninth bar crossed the OR high and closed near its (the ninth bar's) high.
I have posted several examples of this set-up over the past few weeks
3.) What is the exit?
The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high. It was hit on the next bar, and price just kept going.

Set-up grade = "C+" on the first entry mentioned above; "B+" on the second entry mentioned above.

*as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension.

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Paul said...

These are a couple trades I took in the 15 that I was happy with setup but didnt work out - Comments appreciated

IBM - short - entered low of 12 bar

SIVB - Long entered high of 19th bar

Anonymous said...

The range on that 1st bar in sivb was over $2, I would be worried that it made the entire move in that one bar.

IBM was a decent setup, but I would have passed because the 6th-11th bars seemed to have put in a bottom below the or low, so you were shorting into what looked like some established support.


bl said...

IBM looked choppy to me and it had run its course.
SIVB too late in the day. 4/15 doji like and interday Fib, 6/15 hammer would have been a good entries imo.

bl said...

Fact: 82% of naz biggest% gainers(end of day) were >5% >300k $3-20 gap or no gap! I'm changing my scan to $3-20 stocks. dojis/hammers: avnr7/15 12/15 6/30 trms11/15 6/30 lcav-5/10 -5/15. Some no gappers: becn jade mpel tasr. Many were premkt: avnr 2.25 at 8am est. Yesterday's insw good fib# today. Trade: LLTC 2/5 for coffee ASML 3/15 out way soon. Better off playing the no/little gap semies rather than the bigger gap ones.

greytrader said...

The high of the first 15 min bar (OSG) was 64.80 according to all my data sources. My chart from Telechart looks exactly like Jamie's Wall Street Warrior, with an upper tail slightly exceeding the second bar high. That makes the 9th bar high below the OR. So the only valid entry for most of us would have been break the 6th bar.

Also with the upper tail, it makes a very wide first bar. Maybe we should all switch to RealTick :-)

Charles (San Fran) said...

I love the runup, pullback it 50 of the morning move, and continuation. Victoria is good at highlighting those. Nice, consistent pattern.