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Thursday, April 26, 2007

Thursday, Thursday...

posted by Tom C:

A quick note - click on the link (upper right) for TraderInterviews.com...they have some interesting and insightful things on their site. And Trader-X will be doing an interview with them at the beginning of May, so that should be good too.

Post any trades you have and we (TJ or me) will post a chart or two later.



Closet Daytrader said...

Can someone enlight me on (MMM) today?

I saw that Hammer on the 5th bar (15mins), and waited till it closed above Opening Range High, and entered Long right when the 7th bar started. My Protective Stop was at the rising 5eMA, and it was triggered during the 8th bar low.

1) Did I missed something between the 1st - 6th bar?

2) Did I not set my Stop correctly? (6th bar low instead?)

Even had I set my Stop to the 6th bar low, what happened on the 7th bar still puzzles me. Anyone has an explanation?


greytrader said...

Hey TC and TJ,

Thanks for holding the fort.

WEN 15 break of 9th bar high. Took off on th 10th bar, kind of blew off actually :-)

Just curious how you would have managed your exit. I ended up keeping a third of my profits but I am definitely not happy with it.

TonyB said...

I would love your opinion on this one. I don’t know if it makes sense, but it made money and looks like an X setup.

ESI---15 minute chart, bought a break of the 16th bar at 93.90. Drew a Fib line from the morning low to the 7th bar high and sold at the 38.2 extension of that range (95.30) Thoughts?



TonyB said...

Here’s one more. This one I just missed.

BIDU---10 minute chart. Break of the OR high on the 4th bar. A 38.2% Fib extension from yesterday’s low to the opening range high is 107.45 which would be your exit. Can you tell me how you see this pattern and trade? Thanks.

Tony B

Anonymous said...

Hi everybody,
Im new to the blog end love reading your comments! Can somebody tell me what was wrong with PDFS-15 mins entered on the break of the 5th bar, and SSYS- 15 mins entered on the break of the 9th bar? Thanks and keep up the good work!


Anonymous said...

Hi everybody,
Im new to the blog end love reading your comments! Can somebody tell me what was wrong with PDFS-15 mins entered on the break of the 5th bar, and SSYS- 15 mins entered on the break of the 9th bar? Thanks and keep up the good work!


Tom T. said...

Stefan - PDFS entry was not riding the 5ema. Also SSYS entry was on a weak candle (read prior posts on how a candle breaking OR should not have that much of an upper tail or how candle chould be closing at its high as it crosses a key area - the OR high). I think the real reason ssys did not work is that it shot its wad on the OR - a two point gain - very wide bar should be a warning sign, along with a series of indecisive candles, that you really need a strong candle to test OR before you view that as an entry point - Tom T.

Anonymous said...

Stefan, the problem is that you are reading the wrong blog. Granted, the TraderX blog was my first stepping stone when I just started trading. However, I quickly realized that there are many stocks that setup similarly and mostly fail to punch thru. There will be many excuses as to why the trade failed. Your PDFS trade had a descent setup (pros: closed above ORH, retraced nicely to ORH; cons: 5EMA too far, 6th bar ended w/ an upper tail, etc..) I have made numerous trades w/ the same cons but they have worked out and some very handsomely. Bottom line: concentrate on base & break patterns, read this book by Person-Candlesticks and Pivot Points, and read Wall St. Warriors blog. No offense to TraderX and his cheerleaders, but I realized that after viewing his 100th chart, I have not learning anything new then when I viewed his 10th chart.

Paul said...

Stefan -

with ssys I had it on my radar but it didnt close above the OR plus that was not a NR bar.

With PDFS I stay away from stocks under 25 (that is me) and I like my stops to be under the 5EMA or close, there was really no support with the 5, to big a gap...

hope it helps

bl said...

Closet DT
That 6/15 was a pretty wide bar even though it closed above OR. I might have traded 13/15 closed above the OR or 6/30. Trade with the narrow bar NB
Glad to see that you give space to different opinions: Anonymous. Always good. I visit 6 blogs. Stefan,
My biggest problem is getting the number down to someting manageable otherwise I'm scattered and can't trade. I have found stocks $6-30 >100k 1/15 >2% up/dn naz plus a feature stock or 2 like appl and ffiv today, works well with 5/13 ema. Or just trade a feature stock. Came up with 10up/4dn premkt today: arrs pmcs cake vdsi swks mcrl appb chkp xlnx hlit smmx isln Perhaps go to 10min chart in the morning. Some stocks are 1min,5m,10m,15m,or 30m
Traded VDSI 10/30 a bit late in the day for lunch money.

bl said...

X and TomC,
I just looked at ISLN-2/10 doji 14% short gain! Now that is pretty dang good with .17 risk! Do you point and click to scroll or is it all automatic flip thing going on? I just loaded 16 charts(4 per page 4 pages) so I can really look at what's going on with 4 at a time and slide the side bqar scroll down to 4 "marks".
ESI trade looks good and hugging the 5ema. Fib ext calculated from yesterday's low to today's OR high x 1.38 and add to yesterday's low, and it hit the ext!. Also a more risky play would have been the 4-5 equal bar b/o, or 10/15 hammer type that touched the ORH but closed at the high.

Trader-X said...

posted by Tom C:

closet daytrader - why would you enter on the 7th bar when it did not take out the 6th bar's high? What was your trigger? Your signal?

Grey - looking at WEN, I didn't like the sideways action...it just seemed to be consolidating. Also, that spike in the 2nd bar was resistance that needed to be cleared...and the 10th bar just didn't do it.

tony - ESI was kind of like WEN, except it had more movement as opposed to WEN's consolidation. It also had previous resistance to clear from that 7th bar spike, but unlike WEN it did so successfully.

My problem with PDFS is that it was far removed from the 5MA, which indicated it would probably pull back. In addition - and more subjective - it had several wide range first few bars after a large gap up. I would have worried it made its entire move in those first few bars...it would have been a much higher probability trade had it gapped up and printed some narrow bars that would have indicated the possibility for some expansion later.

Anon - then why are you still here reading the blog if it is the wrong blog and you get nothing from it? That is pretty stupid, and pure BS. PDFS failed for the reasons stated above, and if you read the blog and actually look at and study the charts you would know that. I am not as nice as Trader-X and will tell you that you are dumb for reading the blog if you get nothing from it, and even dumber for posting your comments. And a real loser for doing so anonymously. Go away.

bl - I think I just disappointed you with my comment above, but I think that poster is an idiot. And, getting the watchlist down is always an issue; X has addressed it by talking about volume cut-offs, trading only NASDAQ, certain price stocks, certain size gaps...you just have to find what works for you. Otherwise you have a watchlist of 200 stocks and that is just impossible. As far as me - I scroll as opposed to having multiple charts open. It may not be the most efficient way, but it is how my brain processes things.

Trader-X said...

posted by Tom C:

BIDU was a real runner and if you got in on it congratulations...I just didn't see an entry in line with what I look for.

But again, if you traded it you obviously did great.

bl said...

10-4 on the Anon comment. No problemo.The 2x4 could always work, but also one's 2 cents can be profitable and "funny". Nothing wrong with basing and b/o like on a 10 day 30min chart. I'm shying away from ny stocks and naz <100k the first 15 min into the open. #16 is max. Thanks

Randal said...

Tom C., that is the problem. There is so much here that if you don't take the time to actually read it and study it, you will not understand. The 5MA is a great example - talked about every day but if you only glance at the charts and don't read/study the info here, you might miss the importance. And that is why an anonymous poster will make comments like that. They are lazy, and always looking for a short-cut. This is hard work, and requires a lot of time and effort. If it was easy everybody would be making money. The fact that most don't proves how difficult it is and how much time and effort you have to dedicate to it for success.

Daniel S. said...

Randal, very well put mate. That is worth reading again.