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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Bear Market rallies can be violent...

...and they are usually deceptive and misleading. Just something to consider.

Earlier I made a post on the different techniques for plotting Fibonacci lines and I stated that I would post examples of the various techniques over the next week. As fate would have it, today's action in the NQ futures provided two examples.

First, if you plot your lines over the previous day's high and low you will see the following:

1.) Price opens above the Retracement Zone, and after an early pullback it re-takes that level. Note the first arrow that shows price pulling back to re-test the 50% retracement as support.
2.) Price takes out the previous day's high. Note the second arrow that shows price pulling back to re-test that level as support.
3.) Price hits the Fibonacci extension (FE). Note the third arrow that shows price pulling back from that level before it rallies to new highs.

And that brings us to the second example - if you plot your lines over the previous three day's high to low you see that price rallies to close strong, just below the Fibonacci extension (FE).

More examples later in the week.



reno said...

Which brokerage and charting service are you using to trade the NQ futures? I'd like to try trading futures.

Trader-X said...

I use the same broker and charting service for Futures as I do for Equities - Terra Nova (www.terranovatrading.com) and RealTick.

Otto said...

X, have you ever considered using any extensions beyond the 38.2?

Thanks for a great post and site.

Anonymous said...

The volatility is insane. Great blog.