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Thursday, November 20, 2008

It's the end of the world as we know it*

The markets broke the 10/10 lows, and CNBC went to DEFCON 1.

Here are some random statistics:

> the Dow is down 46.7% from the all time closing high in October 2007
> the Nasdaq is down 54% from the all time closing high in October 2007
> the Dow is down 43.1% this year (2008)
> the S&P closed at its lowest level in over 11 years (since April 1997)

Also of note - because of the carnage over the past few months, 175 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 don't meet the minimum market cap requirement of $4 billion.

A monkey in the bear wrench could be DELL, which was up after-hours on earnings. The "perfect bullish scenario" would be to gap (up) back into the previous trading range (ie, above the 10/10 lows). If that happens the markets could stage a rally.

See my post yesterday for other scenarios.

From a trading perspective, the past few months have offered unprecedented opportunities. I will continue to trade setups as they come - long or short. But looking at the bigger picture I of course hope we can make some sort of bottom in this area; time will tell.

Check back this weekend for a few charts.

*and I feel fine.


Jamie said...


The markets are trading as if the U.S. is going into bankruptcy???

The NAZ is indeed down 54% from the Oct. 2007 highs, but the all time highs, least CNBC forget, occurred during the tech bubble in 2000. That was a good time when everyone was feeling extra fine!

Trader-X said...

Good catch!

I am looking for another bounce like last Thursday so I can take the rest of the year off!!!

T.J. said...

Nice eod rally, but who knows what will happen with C and GM over the weekend. Could be a bloody Thanksgiving week.