Here are two trades from yesterday. Both are "beyond the FE" setups, and both pulled back to test the FE as support after breaking through that level a few bars earlier. PAY was more obvious as it had support from a rising MA and formed a "hammer-type" candle (the sixth bar; I entered on a break of its high). ABX required a little more thought as it bounced perfectly off the FE, but had resistance overhead from the 8EMA. It formed a nice "cup and handle" formation and the most conservative approach was to enter when it broke out of that pattern (somewhere between bars 23 and 27). I chose a riskier entry with a break of the 15th bar's high.
I closed PAY at $39.50 and ABX at $55.00. I watched ABX closely as it formed the "cup and handle" - I would have [probably] closed it sooner if price had broke below the 8EMA.
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13 comments:
Trader-X,
Thanks for the awesome charts, man.
Nice trades. :D
FNSR trade was on Thursday, Dec 2. Any thought on my entry (or later missed entry) are much appreciated. Seemed like a good entry, but I was knocked out shortly thereafter, only to watch it later take off without me. Ugh. :\
Friday, Dec 3, I bought ARG on a break above 9th bar (also 2 min chart). Was this breaking your rules for Beyond Fib Ext? 9th candle barely closed above the 1.382 Fib, the majority of the candle's body & wick being below the Fib. I.e., it opened below the Fib but narrowly closed above it.
I want to be flexible but not foolish. Was ARG entry ill-advised?
Do you always want to see the candle's open occurring above the Fib?
I'm feeling a bit self-conscious/guilty for my barrage of questions. Sorry. I just have much to learn. :S
I've been combing through your site for more info when I can. :]
Sincere thanks,
Chips & Salsa
Hi X,
thanks for the post. Are your trades still successful in the 80 to 90 percent range? And are most of your trades successful immediately, like one or 2 bars and your trade goes your way?
Jeter signed today a 3 year contract with 4th as option.
Hector
Trader X,
Let me get it straight. Your entry is above the 6th bar (which is the 7th bar) but is your exit below the low of the 7th bar or the 6th bar. Thanks.
C&S, I have to get back to you. I don't have access to my charts today.
Hector, I am happy about the Yankee Captain! It would have been a travesty to see him anywhere else. He is a legend, and one of the few role models in sports today. Regarding my win %, I have not calculated for the 2nd half of 2010 yet, but I was just below 80% for the 1st half. And yes, I expect the move to be almost immediate - especially on a 2-minute chart.
Flow, you say "exit" but I assume you mean "stop" as my exit was actually about a dollar higher on that trade. The "trigger bar" is the bar that I use to determine if I enter a trade...ie, a break of the trigger bar's high I go long. The stop is the opposite end of the trigger bar (99% of the time)...so, if I went long the stop is the low of the trigger bar. Let me know if that clears it up, or if I misunderstood the question.
Trader X,
Yes I meant stop. I am having much trouble with this.
For PAY, the 6th bar would be the trigger bar and your stop is the low of the trigger bar bar which is $38.20?
Hi everyone
Has anyone used any software to automatically plot Fibs and the halfway point besides Real Tick?
I use Quotetracker and have to manually do it.... I was wondering if maybe NinjaTrader or something else was good...
ZJ
zj,
i use ninja trader and quote tracker. they both work the same. you pick your low and your high and then the software automatically plots the lines.
how do you manually do this with quotetracker? it seems to be automatic, no?
Flow, exactly. I will start noting this better in the charts I post. Every setup has a trigger bar. When the high (low) is taken out for a long (short) setup, I enter the trade. The stop is the opposite extreme of that same bar.
C&S, ARG was a little riskier because it broke back below the FE, but as long as you enter realizing that, it was a valid setup. I don't know I would have taken it - it depends on what other setups were available that day. But again, it worked nicely.
FNSR - I need to find your original comment to see what your entry was. I don't see an actual setup on the sixth-ninth bars, as price was overextended from the long sixth bar and there was no real pattern.
Hi Joshua
Let me clarify.
I manually set the high and low after the first 30 minutes and then right click on the line then select Set Fibonacci with Quotetracker. Then I calculate the 1/2 pts with a calculator and each of them as two horizontal lines.
I was under the impression from one of X's posts that his software does all of the above automatically after the first 30 min. That is, it just shows up... then you have the freedom to move from stock to stock... I sound silly writing all this. I'm in left field?
Trader X,
Thanks!
zj,
you don't sound silly. we are all here to help each other. there is no need for a calculator. i will talk to you on your blog so we don't have to bother X.
Thanks zj and joshua, I am really behind on comments. Joshua, I don't use ninja trader but it sounds similar. ZJ, I pick the high and low, and the Fibonacci levels I denote in RealTick's Fibonacci tool automatically plot the other lines. In my case, they are:
1.382
High
.618
.500
.382
Low
-1.382
Hope that helps.
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