"Thu - for those of you who trade later in the day, JNY made a nice setup off a hammer (5-minute timeframe) when price broke the morning high. I entered on a break of the 1:35EST bar and sold at the fibonacci extension for a .30 gain. Doesn't look like much, but almost 2.5% and I'll take it. Fibs over the morning low to high, 8EMA provided support."
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6 comments:
Nice trade Ray. And, a long on a pretty big down day nonetheless. Well done!
X,
This is one thing that puzzles me, and I wonder if you still notice this.
How do you determine if a stock is doing a pullback and a continuation move, or its reversing and ready to take out your stop?
Sometimes I think its doing a simple pullback but it does one so deep that I gave up all my gains and possibly take me out. Other times, I'll exit too early at a resistance spot, only to find a few bars later it'll just run to the target.
anyone see any good setup today (7/28)?
mine are all choppy, just want to see what other find today.
7/28/11 trades
Times of Your Life, I was remarking to myself today that I just didn’t see much out there.
GST 2nd 15m bar
This was almost a fill-the-tail setup; it was close enough for me, especially with the 3rd bar topping out near the highs of the first 2 bars. Good thing I used the setup bar to set my stop, since the 5th bar had a wicked spike down that would’ve taken out a stop based on the 3rd bar. I partialed at the FE (drawn from PDL to ORH) and sold the rest at EOD.
LEN 9th 10m bar
This was a narrow green bar at the 8ema and 38 fib, but the bar at the highs was shooting star-like, and R2 was just above. I took the trade anyway, aware of the risks, and because I couldn’t find much else. The stock tried for an hour, but it eventually stopped out.
Missed trades
IPG 5th 10m bar short
This was a shooting star at the 5ema but near the 62 fib. I probably would’ve taken the trade, but I saw it 2 bars late. The stock didn’t hit the ORL, but still gave about .50.
AVEO 10th 10m bar
This doji hammer was at the 5ema, but about midway between the ORH and the 38 fib. I felt that the pullback wasn’t deep enough, so I passed on the trade. The stock tried at first, but then it would’ve stopped out.
7/29/11 trades
I had one of my worst trading days today; shorts didn’t work, longs didn’t work, and the one trade management mistake I made cost me profits.
IM 3rd 5m bar
This gapper started dropping from the open. It then formed an inverted hammer a bit under the 38 fib but not quite near the rising 5ema. I took the trade, but I wasn’t completely confident in it, questioning the fact I read somewhere that inverted hammers appear at the end of downtrends. It went up a few cents, but then when it started falling, I bailed. I was so good holding my trades for the last several days, but I didn’t hold this one because I didn’t fully believe in it. It went almost straight up to hit the whole number; I missed out on around .75 of profit.
FNSR 5th 5m bar short
This was a hanging man near the 5ema and at the 38 fib. This candle is the opposite of the inverted hammer in IM above. The trade stopped out quickly due to the market’s bounce. Much later I realized that the stock had a higher low bounce setup right where it stopped out, so I should’ve covered and went long; it managed to fill its gap.
AVL 7th 5m bar short
This shooting star with a big body was at the 8ema and the 50 fib, but the stock’s bar at the lows did have a large lower tail. The stock dropped a bit, but then it stopped out during the market’s bounce.
GNW 7th 10m bar
This was a red hammer a bit above the 5ema and 38 fib. It looked really good to me, with the stock’s high bar not having much of an upper tail and the pullback looking orderly. However, it didn’t work. My stop was at 8.23, .06 under the setup bar’s low, but when it approached I suddenly noticed that 8.23 was R2, so I reluctantly pulled the stop back to 8.18. The stock bounced at 8.22, hitting breakeven, but I didn’t sell there, hoping for a profit. Alas, that didn’t happen; I sold near EOD, saving a few pennies.
WMGI 9th 10m bar
This was a spinning top at the 8ema and 38 fib. The stock almost hit the whole number, but I was looking for at least the ORH; it stopped out later.
Missed trade
CERN 9th 15m bar
This stock had a nice move off the open and then based for a while until hitting the 5ema with this green bar, which I saw late. It didn’t go too far, but a sell at the whole number would’ve netted about .80, which I would’ve gladly taken.
Times,
Yesterday (7/28) wasn't a good day for me, either. Not only did I see a lot of choppy charts, but I also got chopped up by my poor trade selections.
I didn't take these potential CROX trades:
1) 12th 5 min green hammer-ish (likely stopped out)
2) 15th 5 min narrow hammer-like bar (worked)
The 15th narrow bar setup was higher risk due to the upper wick on the 13th bar caused by the fakeout breakout.
They weren't clean setups, since there was a battle taking place at the $30 levels. But like X has mentioned, sometimes less than perfect setups work.
Today (7/29) seemed to be better, especially from the contra (gap fade) setups that I tend to prefer.
I didn't trade today, but here they are:
MILL 13th 5 min bar
WCG 16th 5 min bar
I wrote more details on those trades on the blog I recently started (especially since my comments here were getting too long). So we'll see how long I'm able to keep that going...
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