"I went in with a Tom C. "u-turn" bias and it paid off with gold stocks. GG was my big winner - entered at $47.45 (break of 10:45 bar, 5-minute chart) and exited at the fib extension just above $48. Entered again on a break of the 11:20 bar at $48.31 which to me was a perfect "beyond the fib extension" setup, sold at $49. NEM and several other gold stocks offered similar setups. I am taking the rest of the day off!"
"FYI, 5-minute charts on the previous comment and Fibs plotted over the first 6 bars on GG. Using the 5EMA for extra support, and GG's first setup happened above the 61.8% retracement of the morning's high to low (as it formed the "u-turn")."
Here is Mike's GG chart with the two entries marked (the exit for the first entry was the Fibonacci extension, the exit for the second entry was the black dashed line).
I'm done for the day - be careful out there!
_______________
31 comments:
Looks like we all had the same idea. I traded AUY for some good profits. I love it when a plan comes together!
8/8/11
3R net profit on LEN after 3:00 EST reversal.
4R outta LNC, same 30m, inside bar set-up.
Thank you, X, for all of your instruction and transparency. You've been very generous to help me with so much. Providence led me here, and I'm blessed to have allies like you and this community.
Today was Bi-Winning:
http://youtu.be/9QS0q3mGPGg?t=26s
From Friday:
8/5/11 trades
Today I tried to implement a “set and forget” (S&F) approach, where I initiate a position, set my stop, set my exits near the ORH/ORL and FE, and then sit back and relax, letting the stocks do all the work. I couldn’t escape trading my P&L, though, so let’s say that I was half successful...
AHS 6th 10m bar short
This was a shooting star at the 5ema and 38 fib, right where the ema crossed the fib. It looked ideal, but it didn’t work. I got out early when the stock couldn’t fall and started making a rounding bottom, like in SUPG and FTR a couple of days ago.
MUR 6th 10m bar short
This was a shooting star at the 5ema and S1, and halfway between the 38 fib and ORL. The stock hit the ORL nicely, but I held for the FE. I “suffered” through a .40 pullback, but when it hit under S2 and started bouncing when SPY bounced from S1, I had to get out. It popped .67 this time. Along with my other trades bouncing at the same time, I would’ve watched my P&L go down 70%. That’s rough! I would really have to be a true believer. Sure, I could’ve removed my P&L from my platform, but then I’d probably be trying to calculate it! MUR hit past the 162 extension before bouncing at a whole number. I still got .91 out of the trade with my full position, which might not be much for most of you, but I rarely hold for that much, so I’ll call this trade 2/3 successful.
DRYS 6th 10m bar short
This was a hanging man near the 8ema and slightly above the 38 fib. I partialed at the ORL and then covered the rest there on the SPY pop. S&F here would’ve stopped out on the other half, but that would’ve been OK when/if others hit the FE.
BCSI 7th 10m bar short
This was a hanging man at the 5ema and 38 fib. The stock was dropping nicely at first but then it bounced with the market and I sold early. It would’ve almost come back to breakeven before dropping again to hit the ORL. I would’ve been stressed, but it wouldn’t have mattered with S&F. Afterwards the original stop would’ve been hit.
8/5/11 Missed trades
HANS 8th 5m bar
Yep, a long. This hammer-like at the 8ema and 38 fib looked good to me, but with the markets continuing to drop, I was wary and passed. I would’ve tried it in my IRA, where I’m more relaxed with my trades, but the last 4 or 5 trades in there had stopped out, so I didn’t take it there either. The stock hit the FE in 5 bars.
ATPG 3rd 15m bar short
I saw this stock basing at S2 and wanted to short its breakdown, but somehow I didn’t. I initially charted this stock using fibs over PDH and ORL and didn’t see much interesting, but when I put the fibs over the ORH and ORL, I saw that the stock bounced right at the FE.
As happened on Friday many setups showed up all at once. I watched the HANS long hit the FE and then saw my other candidates grinding up on the 5m, and was wondering if any stocks would set up short. Suddenly, everything did on the 10m at around the 6th and 7th bars. I got the ones listed in the trades section above, but there were so many more. I’ll list them all here. They were all essentially shooting stars at the 5ema/8ema and 38/50 fib, and almost all of them hit the FE. Of course, I had to pick the ones that didn’t do so well, but those are the breaks.
SVNT 6th 10m bar short
APA 6th 10m bar short
BBBY 6th 10m bar short
WLL 6th 10m bar short
CHKP 6th 10m bar short
HES 6th 10m bar short
BRY 6th 10m bar short
GMCR 7th 10m bar short
(ignore that wayward arrowhead at the bottom)
SD 7th 10m bar short
CLR 7th 10m bar short
Most of the stocks that showed up on my screener today had a "short restriction" on them. Was it just my broker, IB, that had a restriction or did you all have many short restrictions as well? I struggled to find something to trade today becuase of it.
I think someone hacked into my account and left the silly comment yesterday that we'd be up +400 on the Dow today! Yeah, I was just a little bit off...
* * * * *
Jay:
I ran into a similar problem today of shorting stocks. In my particular case, I could enter valid orders, but I learned that due to SEC's rule 201 enacted in 2010, if a stock is down 10% or more, then the uptick rule becomes in place for that day AND the next day.
Also, sellers who are exiting positions have priority over short sellers in the execution queue.
On a few stocks, I tried to set a limit order several cents below the bid, and didn't get filled for 3 minutes or only got a partial.
Very strange, since I usually get a confirmation right away. I thought the system had broken due to high volume, but I called TradeStation and was schooled on the uptick rule.
Therefore, for those stocks flagged today with a 10+% decline, this will make it more difficult (but not impossible) to short those stocks tomorrow.
Fortunately, I had a decent day on my first day back trading in a week. Had a lousy trade or two, but still did close to 70% accuracy.
A few late day trades (8/8) to add to the mix:
MWW 5min, sell below low of 13:25 bar. Classic beyond the FE setup.
KWK 5min, sell below 14:05 bar. I believe this is more like a trade Tom C. would take.
Charts and additional comments posted here.
* * * * *
Here's a post I wrote about how the SPY doesn't seem like it's crashing. I've heard many comments that the selling is orderly on the intraday charts, and I agree. It doesn't feel like panic, and it doesn't feel like it's crashing.
Is it just me? Or am I just out of touch?
8/8/11 non-trades
I was very tired this morning and just couldn’t get untracked to trade anything. Set and Forget (S&F) would’ve worked very well today.
YOKU 5th 5m bar short
This was a shooting star with its tail near the 5ema and its body straddling the 50 fib. However, I’ve seen in the past that YOKU is volatile, so I passed. The setup was technically broken when the next bar’s high breached the setup bar’s high by .02, but I probably would’ve still taken the trade when it triggered (provided I wasn’t concerned about its volatility). YOKU hit the ORL, where I would’ve partialed, and then bounced at about the halfway point between the ORL and the FE. The remaining shares would’ve stopped out hours later.
FFIV 8th 5m bar short
I happened to see this interesting setup one bar late. FFIV started closing its opening down gap at first, but then it reversed, made a lower high, and then formed a shooting star at the 5ema and 50 fib. Looking at it again now, it looks like the shooting star at the 7th bar was good also, although it was wider than the 8th bar. FFIV plunged past the halfway point between the ORL and the FE in 5 bars. I would’ve partialed at the ORL, but then the stock bounced more than $3, and that bounce included a higher low near the ORL. I likely would’ve abandoned S&F after the higher low, but the stock never hit the original stop and actually hit the FE late in the day, so S&F still would’ve worked. Make all my buys in the morning, sleep during midday, wake up near EOD, and exit remaining shares, if any. Yep, I gotta convince myself that it’s that simple! :-)
HCA 11th 10m bar short
I had plenty of time to get into this shooting star at the 8ema and halfway between the 38 fib and the ORL, but SPY seemed to be popping big, so I passed. The stock kept trending down from the entry and eventually hit the 200 extension (well, it missed by .02). New rule: Ignore the market! HANS and MUR sure did on Friday. Take good setups, despite the market moving in the “wrong” direction.
RF 11th 10m bar short
This was a shooting star at the 5ema and S2, and halfway between the 38 fib and the ORL. However, the pullback was choppy, which made me hesitate. The trade would’ve worked, though, nearly hitting the 200 extension.
SLM 11th 10m bar short
This was a shooting star at the 5ema and halfway between the 38 fib and the ORL. Again, the pullback was choppy, but the trade would’ve worked, hitting .10 away from the 200 extension. I didn’t see this in time, though, but I probably wouldn’t have taken it if I had.
8/9/11
PGH, 5m, 5ema, Fibs OR, long above bar 7, exit 1/2 at 3R, exit 1/2 at $10.61, net 2.5R profit.
This was a Fib Extension play, one of the few I've made in a long time. Bar 7 had several things going for it:
1) It was a bullish, inside bar resting a penny above the Fib Extension after the previous candle closed above the FE.
2) It was the smallest bar of the day (like bar 2).
3) It set a new closing high for the day and continued to keep price above the previous day's trading range.
4) It had support from sharply rising 5 & 8 emas that were targeting a 100 ema crossover and delivered.
Interesting and very volatile day. I only made a few trades for dinner money.
For me, I've found it best that when it all starts to hit the fan and get crazy, just continue to focus on the screener/watch list, bring up the charts, and look for the usual setups.
Filter out the noise/news. The charts aren't really much different than any other in-play juiced stock on a normal day. Although it's as if just about every stock seems to be in-play!
Unfortunately, when I page through my watch list, my charts on TradeStation are taking too long to come up, likely due to the demand and volume. So I took it as a sign to take this afternoon easy.
Hope everyone is doing well and keeping a very close watch controlling their risk!
So much for me wimping out and taking off this afternoon due to sluggish charts (well, better safe than sorry).
But I come back to see what a perfect beyond the opening range high setup took place on the SPY near the close. It's as if all the stars lined up on this one.
SPY - 5min, buy above 15:35 for the following reasons:
* Was above vwap, and 5ma crossed over earlier
* Around 25 minutes of consolidation (refueling after a big move from bottom)
* Broke above the 100 ma
* 5ma was rising and supported price
* Green hammer-like bar said, "you are clear for take off"
Many stocks on my watch list followed a similar pattern. We'll see what tomorrow brings!
I think the thing that this post illustrates best, is that with a consistent, focused methodology, you can be successful on individual trades no matter what the larger market is doing.
8/9/11 trades
What a wild day today! It started out well for me, but later I got dragged down by iffy trades. Of course, if they had worked, they would’ve been great trades!
SFI 4th 5m bar
This was a red hammer near the rising 5ema and at the 38 fib. I was wary about taking a long, but I decided to follow my new “Ignore the market” rule. I initiated the trade, set a limit sell at the ORH and another one at the FE, and forgot about it! :-) Well, not really, but the trade was very easy since there wasn’t really a pullback at all. And as you can see, SFI blasted through the FE and hit 5.84 before faltering. Looking at the chart now, I see that the 5ema would’ve kept me in for most of the run. I didn’t watch the pullback from 5.84, but now I notice that SFI bounced from the FE, R1, and the 5ema on the 15m to hit past the 200 extension.
TNDM 8th 5m bar short
This was a shooting star at the 5ema and halfway between the 38 fib and the ORL. The SPY was making new highs, but I ignored it again and took the short. I partialed at the ORL and then watched TNDM pop straight up and hit my original stop, erasing all of my gains and making me slightly negative on the trade. I really wanted to cover earlier, but I stuck with Set and Forget (S&F). This time it didn’t work, which is OK, since I’ve seen it work so many times.
DGIT 6th 10m bar
This was a hammer at the 5ema, but it was mostly under the 50 fib. DGIT initially popped nicely, but it kept making lower highs afterwards, and then it started to form a slow rounding top. This should’ve been my clue to get out early, but I stuck it out until the FOMC minutes at 2:15pm caused DGIT to start plunging. I got out early; my stop would’ve been hit later.
SIMO 11th 10m bar
This was a doji hammer-like at the 5ema, halfway between the 38 fib and the ORH, and slightly under R2. I partialed at the whole number ORH, but then the stock just based there. I sold the rest before the FOMC minutes as it dipped under the base.
CPE 8th 15m bar
This trade was a bit iffy, with the previous bar offsetting the bar before that, but all I saw was the shiny narrow hammer-like at the 5ema. The trade stopped out.
AVL 9th 15m bar
This hammer at the 5ema and bouncing off the 38 fib looked pretty good, but the trade failed.
KITD 9th 15m bar
This red hammer at the 5ema looked OK, but the trade failed. Perhaps the pop on the 6th bar was too far too fast, but SFI had a wide initial pop also.
WFR 15th 10m bar
This was a very narrow hammer under the 8ema, but I liked that it was at R2. I saw it late and paid a bit more for it. It creeped up steadily, but then the FOMC minutes dropped it. I sold early, but I see now that the original stop wasn’t hit (I use .05 to .07 under a bar as my stop). At EOD the stock hit over the ORH.
8/9/11 Missed trades
CVC 6th 15m bar short
This was a green shooting star at the 5ema and 38 fib, but the circuit breaker was on. I would've hit the bid when I saw the setup trigger, but I had to wait for an uptick. That happened .05 lower than I wanted, so I hesitated because I didn’t want to chase. The stock kept drifting lower and lower and finally hit the FE, with me agonizing over the miss all along the way. For want of .05 I missed out on about 1.25. I have to consider chasing a little bit on good setups. Not sure I want to make that a rule yet, though.
LQDT 7th 15m bar short
I saw this narrow shooting star at the 5ema and 50 fib in time to catch it, but the stock looked thin and spready, so I passed. The trade would’ve stopped out quickly.
GTY 7th 15m bar short
This was a green shooting star at the 5ema and 38 fib. I don’t remember why I didn’t take it. The stock initially missed the ORL by .09; I wouldn’t have set my partial that far from the target, so I would’ve then had to watch it almost stop out before it finally made it to the FE. Or I could’ve closed my eyes and just heard the alerts going off when my targets got hit.
Klaorman:
I think your "ignore the market" rule is a very good one, especially since this is based on Trader-X's years of trading wisdom.
As I continue along my path of discovery, I've found that like anything else, there are multiple ways of looking at the same thing, and the same applies to whether you track the overall markets or not.
For example, many ES/NQ futures as well as SPY/QQQ traders use other indices, $tick index, as well as individual stocks, and who knows what else, as "tells" to help them trade. That's just a part of their trading strategy.
I've found that an individual stock will generally 1) lead, 2) lag, or 3) doesn't care what the overall markets does. They can also alternate between those options, in some cases on a whim.
If you can't quickly determine which one of the categories above the stock is current in, then using the market indices to influence your trade in that stock is introducing noise, a crapshoot.
However, if you develop the ability to quickly "filter" the noise and determine whether the stock is correlated but slightly lags the the market, I've seen certain instances where you can take advantage of it. But I believe this applies more to variations to the standard Trader-X setups, or non-Trader-X strategies.
Therefore, as a general rule, I agree that ignoring the market is best -- just trade the setups as they occur, according to the rules. I think this applies to nearly everyone using the Trader-X strategies, especially me!
8/10/11
AUY, 5m, 5ema, Fibs OR, long above bar 5, exit 1/2 at 3R, stop moved up to FE, holding 1/2 to $15, if it makes it.
Lot of gold miners making big moves today.
anyone finding any good trade today 8/10?
PTNR, short, 5-minute chart, break of the 6th bar low. Price had pulled back from the opening decline and stalled at the 50% retracement and the 8EMA. Big percentage gainer over 7%.
Th 8/10 >$10 >1m adv -/+most % moves adv can shorten the WL: IL DB CSC STI BCS HIG JRCC CREE OPEN.
Grove Under,
Thanks for your feedback. Yes, “ignore the market” is based on Trader-X, but I had to learn it for myself from my own observations. Same thing with “set and forget;” I remember asking others here how they could hold through big retraces before positions finally hit the FE. Mostly I heard crickets chirping, but after reviewing tons of charts I finally came to the conclusion that I just have to trust the setups; I have to allow stocks to “breathe” on their way to the FE, so keeping their setups’ original stops with no adjustments is the best way. My one “adjustment” for now is partialing at the ORH/ORL, so that I can feel that I’ve pocketed some profits; eventually I’ll want to learn to hold my whole position to at least the FE, as I suspect Trader-X does (the WLT trade was an incredible hold).
Of course, saying these rules and actually executing them are 2 entirely different things, as you’ll see in my next comment.
8/10/11 trades
I couldn’t “ignore the market” today, to my detriment:
IVZ 5th 5m bar short
I saw this red bar at the 5ema and 38 fib confirm the 4th bar doji and got short. I held as the stock dropped past the ORL, but it missed the FE by about .05. As the SPY bounced off S1, IVZ bounced too, so I “had” to get out at the ORL. It almost hit my breakeven point, but then it dropped nicely to hit the FE.
SPR 5th 5m bar short
This was a hanging man at the 5ema and 62 fib, which was a little deep, but at the trigger point it was back at the 38 fib, so I got short. I got a good price too, even with the circuit breaker status on. The stock bounced at 15.02 with the market, but I was waiting for it to get closer to the 14.91 ORL. As my paper profits disappeared and the trade started going into the red, I “had” to cover. The stock wouldn’t have hit my stop, so I had no reason to cover. It started ranging between 15.20 and 15, but as the market rallied in the afternoon, it stayed in its range, indicating weakness. I had an inkling that it would drop if the market’s rally failed. Sure enough, it started plunging when the rally failed and quickly hit the FE near EOD. I was just amazed what leaving well enough alone can accomplish!
AOL 5th 5m bar short
This was a green shooting star at the 5ema and with its tail bouncing off the 38 fib. The stock didn’t do much; I also got out of this one early on the market’s bounce. It would’ve stopped out later on a wicked spike.
How many more times do I have to watch setups hit the FE before I will “set and forget” and “ignore the market?” Apparently 2 more times today. ;-) As I watched my paper profits disappear, I was thinking, “It’s not working! It’s not working!” My counter self-talk should’ve been:
“Did the trade stop out?” -- “Uh, no...”
“Then the trade is still working! Relax!”
If I assign the number 100 to the highest amount that my P&L had reached with the 3 trades I took above, then I would’ve watched it go down to -70 at the lows. I covered everything early at -13. If I had stuck it out and ignored the market, I would’ve made 156. Watching my P&L go from 100 to -70 wouldn’t have been easy, though, but I have to learn to stick it out so that I can reap the rewards later. Pain now, reward later.
8/10/11 Missed trades
AMTD 5th 5m bar short
This was a shooting star-ish bar at the 5ema and 50 fib, but I didn’t have shares to borrow. The stock barely missed the FE at first, but later the target was hit.
PNTR 6th 5m bar short
As Toby did, I saw this tiny green shooting star near the 5ema and at the 50 fib. However, circuit breaker status was on; I had a hard time getting the short off and didn’t want to chase it after I missed my ideal price. The stock hit the FE target in a little over an hour. I have to work harder to get the short on circuit breaker stocks and shouldn’t mind a small chase. Congrats, Toby; did you have a hard time shorting PNTR? Did you get an acceptable price?
ZOLT 8th 30m bar short
This was a shooting star-ish bar at the 5ema and about halfway between the 38 fib and the ORL. Circuit breaker was on. I think I was paying attention to the market again and also was just unsure about the setup (the previous bar had offset the bar before that, it was later in the day, the pullback wasn’t quite deep enough, circuit breaker was on). The stock finally broke down past the ORL and closed just off its LOD.
Klaorman,
I meant to answer your question about trade management a while back, and maybe I just plain forgot, haha. Sorry. :]
I can only speak for how I go about it. Mine is a variation of Trader Mike's archived comments on his blog and Trader X's posted examples here.
I'll move the stop to breakeven once I've hit 2R. When I've hit 3R or the FE (depending on the set-up), I'll exit 1/2.
At this point, I also tighten the stop to below one of the following (for longs, in this example): a swing low, a bar that makes technical sense, a whole dollar or 50 cent level, or a Fib level.
Since every chart is different, I just adapt where I need to. The decision is not always ideal. But I almost never manually take any profit until I get at least 3R out of the trade. If this means I stop out for 1R profit, 1R loss, or at breakeven, so be it. I absolutely have to let the stock breathe, as you accurately put it.
I never scale in. That's just me. But I always scale out, usually in just two steps: 1/2 at 3R (or the FE) and 1/2 at 5R or 6R (if I'm lucky enough to hit these targets).
Sometimes I'll take 1/4 profits if a stock continues to set up additional bullish candles, but it just depends on what the situation is for me and the overall market in my judgment.
Again, this is only how I do it. There are a million ways to manage a trade, I'm sure.
time of your life, i'm having trouble finding trades because the scanner is bringing up so many stocks.its driving me nuts
bl, can you elaborate "adv -/+most % moves adv " thanks
Klaorman:
Your comment, "I had to learn it for myself from my own observations..." is so spot on!
It's like even if everyone tells you not to touch the fire, you have to do it once and get burned to truly understand. Using that example, I've been burned a million+ times.
Chips and Salsa:
Nice and useful explanation of how you scale out, thanks.
Grove,
I don't know if anybody ever benefits from my rants. But I've grown bored of talking to myself. Hope you had a good day.
AOL on the 2m (I must be insane) was my best play today (8/11/11).
Radio? Who needs a radio?
http://youtu.be/G5f_gbzo4Q0
Joshua, what I meant was scan for most %/pts up or down, stocks >$10<$100, >1m avg daily volume. Th(5 or 10 min charts): NWSA CSCO SODA MOS, or <$10: AONE DANG SOL TLB. A way to cut down the WL by price or volume or both. I don't use a scanner per say but I have a standard ALL WL of 2300 and click most %/pts up/dn BUT I just culled it down to 1200 based on >1m adv. Easier and I don't miss much. Mkt gapped up, sold off, reversed and went 400 pts. Most of the stocks will follow the trend of the mkt...hard to ignore.
Joshua, what I meant was scan for most %/pts up or down, stocks >$10<$100, >1m avg daily volume. Th(5 or 10 min charts): NWSA CSCO SODA MOS, or <$10: AONE DANG SOL TLB. A way to cut down the WL by price or volume or both. I don't use a scanner per say but I have a standard ALL WL of 2300 and click most %/pts up/dn BUT I just culled it down to 1200 based on >1m adv. Easier and I don't miss much. Mkt gapped up, sold off, reversed and went 400 pts. Most of the stocks will follow the trend of the mkt...hard to ignore.
gotcha bl...thanks for elaborating. i sort my scans by vol% change through quote tracker. i also use lightspeed's riser/faller list. still way to many stock for me to check out. i guess i could just concentrate on the first 10 or 20 but i feel like i'm missing something. haven't seen many convincing setups the past week.
Chips and Salsa,
Can you explain how you switch from timeframe to timeframe. I am having trouble with that and it seems like your trades can vary from 2 min timeframes to 30 minute IB's. How do you keep up with all that, and do you have a specific time routine? I seem to have a hard time keeping different timeframes separate from each other.
Chips and Salsa,
No problem; I had to figure it out on my own anyway. Thanks for the detailed explanation of your trade management strategy.
@CHIPS AND SALSA
I value your posts/comments a lot and I always check your setups after you post them. I think you are trading only very good and clean setups and have the discipline to only take large R winners as opposed to closing the trade out too early.
KEEP IT UP ;-)
P.S.: Do you mind providing your e-mail as I have some further questions for you that do not belong here?
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