Hey X, I like CNBC going crazy. I am finding some great set-ups today. Check out BOBJ, break of the 2nd bar high as it moved above the retracement zone (and now above the Fibonacci extension).
Here is the chart - read my analysis in "Comments" of this post:
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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, bobj
21 comments:
Tom C., I missed that one! Good trade and post the chart today. I want to see where you exit.
I like these that gap down and move up above the ret zone. Maybe they should be the new bread and butter.
Closed it on a break of the 6th bar low. Tom C.
Tom C., what made you pick that one? There is a strong wide range first 30 min bar with a narrow range second bar, but it gapped down. It's obviously a good trade in hindsight, but just looking at it as of 10:30 am, I wouldn't have been able to tell it would blow above the second candle. Also, where did you first see it?
Looking forward to the chart and analysis.
In the context of previous price action, the 1st bar was not too wide range. It moved above the retracement zone from the previous day's high to the OR low, which is bullish and a set-up that has been highlighted on the blog before. The second bar was a hammer-like narrow-range bar above the retracement zone and supported by a moving average. To me it was an easy one to spot, and using X's grading system I would give it a strong B+.
As for where I found it, I don't know. It was on one of the gap sources I use (see past gap source post). Tom C.
How about FUL? Looks good on a 15 min. chart. Here's what I saw:
Gap up, strong first bar. Orderly pullback to MA support. Entry above 4th bar high, watching for a stall at 15-min OR high.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5593/1464/1600/Picture1.jpg
exengineer -- I passed on FUL (15-min) because the OR high was penetrated by the 2nd bar and once there is penetration, I like to have a close above the OR high before entering. However, in the case of FUL, bar 2 was a minor penetration (and it did not close above the OR high) -- in my mind this is less risky than an actual close above the OR high, then an entry below the OR high. Good trade.
estocastica
ExEngineer: IMO to catch BOBJ it had to be on someone's watchlist. I see (as many others do) all gappers up and down pre-market and during market hours. There were others like FUL that gapped up that most would be looking at.
If you zoom out to a 15min or 30min chart you can see a larger cup and handle pattern that formed for BOBJ. I think that is more of why BOBJ was traded and that it was probably on someone's watchlist than any other reason.
Keep it simple and look at the gappers. To actually be watching a BOBJ type trade as it is happening, as others are moving to new high's is what I would consider out of the ordinary. There are plenty of others that you would be looking at before looking at a BOBJ. It is nice in hindsight to look at the "when and why" of the trade but don't expect to catch those unless you already had it on a watchlist. Concentrate on the easy fruit of the day ;-)
Joey, BOBJ was on my watchlist and anyone who uses the gap sources from the Trader-X posts would have it on their watchlist too. I don't look at longer term patterns as you suggest - my lists are compiled fresh every morning from gaps.
You also say:
"To actually be watching a BOBJ type trade as it is happening, as others are moving to new high's is what I would consider out of the ordinary."
Why? It was a gapper, it was a set-up that has been highlighted before, and it was a solid trade (see the analysis I posted above in "Comments"). Moreover, I don't look at the overall market to see what is happening (neither does X). I don't try to predict market direction...I focus on my set-ups and trades.
I don't mind you saying it is a trade you would not make, but don't post info that isn't true.
Thanks.
Tom C.
I switched to Trade-Ideas for my gaps, and BOBJ was on my list. It was a sweet trade but I missed it. Nice job.
FYI - it also gapped down to the previous day's low and the 34MA.
I actually love this kind of set-up and trade it multiple times a week. I find it very reliable if it clears the fib resistance zone after gapping down. Two more from today are UTHR, and IVGN.
Keep up the great work.
Beavis: Heh, heh... you said BJ like 15 times... heh, heh.
Butthead: Coooooool.
I use the gap sources from X's posts, and I didn't have BOBJ on my list today. I used INET Top 20, Quote.com unfilled gaps, A Prophet.net gap scan, Marketwatch intraday screener, Nasdaq Pre-Market most active, even Trader Mike's gaps list from Briefing.com. Unless I missed it, which is completely possible, it didn't come from any of those X-sources.
I just hope that before people get dismissed as one who obviously does not use the sources and the past charts, that it would be considered that even those who are reading the past charts, studying hard, and using the X-style sources may miss something that the more experienced would catch.
Maybe my questions are a little too basic; I'll keep reading silently for the most part until I'm more up to speed. The last thing I want to do is clutter up X's blog!
exengineer - it was on my list. If it did not come from any of the sources you mention, then it came from Trade-Ideas.
Regardless, I am not sure what it matters. It was a gap, and Tom C. made a good trade and posted it. The goal of everyone should be to learn from the charts, not to be upset that they missed a trade posted here. I would think most people would want to see trades they missed instead of trades they saw, anyway.
No need to keep silent. Questions are fine. I don't think Tom C. gave the impression or dismissed anyone, either.
Stephan and Ronnie - I will keep an eye on them! Who knows, maybe it should be...
I don't see what all the fuss is about. BOBJ really doesn't need any analysis, it was a hanging curve ball over the plate. Nice trade.
I did catch FUL on the 30-minute break of the 2nd bar.
Ronnie, just curious on UTHR it had retracement zones all the way up today to contend with.. are u saying it cleared the retracement zones based on todays opening range rather then yesterdays high to todays low?
For the question to me on UTHR, I am not sure what you mean by retracement zones all the way up to contend with? I trade the way X does, so it is based on the previous days high to the opening low. On the 15-minute chart the 1:00 bar cleared that retracement zone and rallied to the previous days hgih.
ok Ronnie, I didn't realize you got in at 1pm.. thought you entered earlier thats what prompted my question. Nice trade. Check out BE short for tommorrow. Nice resistance at the .38 fib.
yep, joey - good eye on BOBJ.
that was a 3T or 4T breakout on an ascending triangle - 60m chart.
nice trade TC
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