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Friday, February 09, 2007

Addressing the negativity...

It seems to be that time of year again - when the crazy people come out. Actually they are always there finding the need to write and be negative, but as recent posts by Tyro and Victoria indicate, they seem to be more active now for some reason.

So I have compiled my negative emails and comments from the past few weeks, and will attempt to answer them here in Q&A format.

Q.) Why don't you post a picture of your daily blotter so I know you are really profitable?
A.) What possible motivation could I have to post my daily blotter for you? I am not selling Trader-X's "“Hot Stock Picks", or Trader-X's "Real-Time Calls". The purpose of my blog is to post how I trade and analyze charts in hopes that it will benefit others, and also to benefit me by the comments and contributions of others. I don't discuss - nor have I ever discussed - how much money I make on a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis.

If you do not believe I am profitable, and you think I am full of shit, then don't read my blog.

Q.) Why don't you post losing trades?
A.) The short answer is that I don't have that many. I have detailed how I trade for everyone to see, and if you read my blog you know I am very selective and I elect to trade less so I can focus on taking higher-quality set-ups and monitoring my open positions. I understand that you can learn from mistakes, and if I have something I feel is worth sharing, I will. As always, you can post losing trades in "Comments" and you will usually find no shortage of opinions and feedback from myself and others.

In the meantime you need to focus on doing the right things - focus on winning trades - because you tend to hit what you aim for; so study the winning trades and you will be drawn to them.

Q.) I find it hard to believe you don't ever have losing days. You are full of shit...
A.) Not really a question as much as a statement. I think I have addressed it above, but the bottom-line is if I told you how many losing trades I have per week, you would think I was lying. If I told you when my last losing day was, you would really think I was lying. And it would just generate more hate mail and comments.

Again, if you do not believe I am profitable, then don't read my blog.

Q.) Don't the stats and studies show that trading gaps is a losing game? That trading candlestick patterns is a losing game? That trading based on TA is a losing game?
A.) I will use Tom C's eloquent response to a similar question in "Comments" earlier this week:
"If you do a study based solely on stocks that gap 5% I am sure you will get the results mentioned. Your post leads me to believe you have not read much on Trader-X's blog.

So much goes into deciding whether to take a trade...analysis of price action, where it is in relation to the opening range, candle patterns, is there support from the 5MA and Fibonacci levels, narrow-range vs. wide-range bars (just to name a few considerations).

Actually understanding these things is what allows someone to achieve a higher win rate and become profitable in this business. If you are just buying or selling a stock because it gapped 5%, you will fail.

IMO, these studies of gaps and candle formations and other TA principles are laughable - by their very logic they reflect that the people doing them don't understand the first thing about how to trade. They are just gamblers trying to find odds in their favor"

Q.) How much money do you make off your blog? You only blog for the money, you do not really trade...
A.) This is - to borrow from Tom C. - laughable, and the question or statement happens with such frequency it leads me to believe that many readers think blogs generate a ton of money. I am sure there are many that do - The Superficial is on my BlogRoll and they probably make six figures plus every year off advertising.

I don't have many ads, and 75% 100% of the ads on my site are for products I have personally used, benefited from, and stand behind (i.e., "The T.A.D. Principle" and TRADEthemove.com).

I have stated before the ballpark revenue that my blog generates. I will just say that in 2006, it was over $1,000 and under $5,000. If I looked solely at the money my blog generated and used that to make a decision on whether to continue blogging, you would never hear from me again. I trade for a living, I don't blog for a living.

But I do enjoy writing, sharing, and giving back for my good fortune; and, as most of you know all of the ad money generated by my blog goes to my Good Karma project.

As always, thanks for reading. Now is a good time to remind everyone if you have questions about how I trade, read the posts under "WELCOME, LINKS TO KEY POSTS, RESOURCES".

Check back over the next few days for some charts, watch "The Police" reunion on the Grammy Awards Sunday night, and have a good weekend!



fd said...

Addressing the positivity:

I appreciate all your hard work. I have learned a lot. Thank you.

greytrader said...

Thank you for your blog and for taking time to answer emails. You have made many better traders.

It is easier to doubt others than it is to doubt ourselves and take responsibility for sub par trading results. Obviously the people generating the negative comments have not read and applied the TAD principle :-)

Jamie said...

Thanks for addressing this. My blog was also hit with some nasty comments and emails this week. I hope that the bitterness and animosity that these crazies are spreading will not deter new traders and the trader blogging community.

Agree with GreyTrader - these guys could take a lesson from TAD.

Have a great weekend!

Flatwallet said...

X, Jamie and others,

If you show me the path to success I don't need to study the road to failure. I do not care for your loosing trades unless they necessary to enhance the road to success. I have a limited amount of time each day to study my own trades and to learn from them, therefore I don't have time to study your entire trading history. What you show me everyday may be all that I need to help me define my blue print for successful trading. I appreciate the fact that you all have shared so much. In a time of paranoia, it's refreshing to see people share ideas even though there are many that will claim that it erases their edge.

Thank you and I look forward to many more lessons.


Declan Fallon said...

Well - at least it is one way you know you have readers!

Best wishes

van said...

X - I’m thankful that you and Tom C. take the time to post some charts and insights. It has added a new dimension to my trading. I also agree that posting examples of the good setups and not the losers is the way to go. If a potential trade I’m looking at isn’t “blogworthy”, I pass.

Have a great weekend!

nickm said...

Trader-X thanks for the effort to keep this blog interesting and educational. Off course we all want to have winners and posting those trades is essential in learning how to pick the right trade, the correct entry and how to manage winning trade. But we all get some % of losing trades. I think it is just as important to cover those, since keeping your losses under control is the key to longevity in this business. It is all part of trade management. I don't see any negativity in asking ( in a right way)to post losing trade analysis.

Mark said...

"They are just gamblers trying to find odds in their favor." Isn't that what you're doing--trying to stack the deck in your favor with an edge? There are lots of ways to do this, and you certainly have found a good one. Perhaps others have not found such a good edge, and perhaps they don't understand how your edge works or why it's better. However, I think we're all "trying to find odds in our favor."

Terry said...

nickm, as he stated you can post any losing trade you want feedback on in comments and you will get some good advice.

Bill said...

I think what Tom C. was talking about is the studies done on things like gaps up X%. The study will say we analyzed gaps up of X% over a year, and 60% of them fail. That has nothing to do with the type of trading described on this blog.

If you actually learn to read a chart and understand price action, you are not gambling imo. A year ago I was gambling, trying to get a win rate of 51%. Now I am actually understanding why things move the way they do.

I am not there yet, but I get closer to that point every day...thanks mainly to X's blog and a few of the other blogs out there.

Sami said...

X you rock. Keep on going man.
Back in the 90's we used to hang out at the ClearStation message boards to discuss TA. Whenever we made a call based on the chart, somebody would start bashing. Eventually i got tired of it and developed a Journaling software (term blog was not invented yet) along with a subscription based mailing list to discuss trades and ideas.
Some people then would take the effort to read the website, subscribe to the mailing list, read it and then post hateful crap back to the list.
I just gave up and stopped doing it. what some idiots would do just to feel they matter is amazing...
keep up the good work, you do an amazing job, and it is duly appreciated.

KayakHandy said...

It is not my intention to ruffle feathers but IMHO it is important to verify trades for performance if asked for, especially if a blog or other source of information is to be used as a guide or instruction on trading. Past history of several years is also important.

When a prospective trader comes to me and asks for a chance to trade at my house do you think I just take his word for how much experience they have or what their performance has been? NO!!! it must be verified...then they get a foot in the door and enter the training program...and trust builds from that point, but the performance verification continues every day.

There are hundreds of ways to trade and trading the gaps is just one of those ways. X gives some good information" 'you just have to be willing to learn...and if you pay attention you should be able to glean some very fine details to add to your trading success.

Anonymous said...

you do a hell of a job - there are negivite people everywhere, just look at how the liberals bash this great country and our own president. You can never be perfect If people want something to get negitive about they should go watch wall strip - now that is bad.

Tyro said...

To paraphrase Tolstoy, All successful trades are alike; every unsuccessful trade is unsuccessful in its own way.

There's not much point in listing off all of the different ways of screwing up a trade. What good would it do? Instead, give people a destination instead of a laundry list of things to avoid and let them find their own way.

As you get more successful, you're just going to get more criticism. It's an unfortunate form of recognition. Keep up the excellent work.

estocastica said...

Very interesting. Maybe I should reconsider posting losers on my site. I'll pose this question sometime soon -- it's just that so many people seem to get value from viewing my losing trades. I think it's mainly a psychological indicator that I too am human, and like all humans, fallible. Still, I can see how it could be helpful to some.

Trader-X said...

anonymous = ugly?

Come on, I love Wallstrip!

Thanks for the positive feedback everyone.

Anonymous said...

I agree with nickm in that I found bad trades just as useful as good ones.
@esto please dont stop posting your losing trades. It helps me, and I'm sure others, to see why a particular trade didn't work and how you handled it.


Charles (in San Fran) said...

I don't know what the debate is here, as X says he does not lose often and if he has a loser worth posting he will.

Personally, I learn plenty from my losers so I don't need to see others. And, I have written X about my losers before and he has given me advice.

If you have a loser, post it for advice. Otherwise, come here to learn how to spot winners.

Jim C. said...

Loving The Negativity
Consider the following alternative view (perhaps taking the TADish road) on the negativity. When a successful trader enters a great setup (a TraderX or a VBox setup for example) at the proper time and price zone, his/her success depends on others entering afterwards and pushing the market toward/thru the target zone. Many of those that enter shortly after the “proper” zone are solid traders who, for various reasons (perhaps saw the setup late, or have different analysis, indicators or entry trigger, etc.), had different timing on that trade. Unsuccessful traders (especially those with a NEGATIVE attitude), will chase these markets as they become over extended and, most importantly, will chase them thru the target objectives. Although they may be a pain in terms of blog email/ responses, I love these haters, their lack of confidence and their money.

A famous market wizard (Ed Sekoyta) was once asked – How can a losing trader (or negative person) transform himself into a winning trader (or positive person)? His reply was something like, “A losing trader (or neg person) can do little to transform himself into a winning trader (or pos person). A loser is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winners do.”

Love the haters… the negatators… the losers…

Anthony said...

Don't change a thing. Everything is perfect, and I learn so much from you, Tom C., and most of the commenters.

Michael B. said...

I agree with Anthony. Great blog. I also enjoyed TAD.