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Tuesday, March 20, 2007

EAGL - 032007; 15-minute chart

I did not find a lot of "traditional" opportunities today.

I did trade EAGL - it was a set-up similar to Tom C's ABN trade yesterday. EAGL gapped up and after a brief pullback moved above the OR high and consolidated around that level for a half dozen bars.

The eighth bar looked like it was going to break lower, but was stopped by the rising 5MA. The ninth bar reversed, leaving a long lower tail and closing strong back above the OR high (a hammer-type candle).

The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high - it was hit later in the afternoon. I give this set-up a grade of "B+".



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30 comments:

J said...

I didn't find much today either. Here are the two setups I did trade.

TIE 15M/10B (offsetting hammer above OR)
Exit: 138 FIB

PLD 30M/8B (INR7 with EMA resistance)
Exit: Bottom of OR

Maybe tomorrow will bring more setups than we've been seeing lately.

Hope everyone found success today.

Dave said...

Nice trade, X. I'd be interested to hear what you thought about RMBS off the 9th 15m bar and GILD off the 14th 15m bar.

estocastica said...

Beautiful my friend.

Gary said...

interesting charts for today

WYNN ( breakout of 3' chart--kinda HCPG), RDN, ABMD SIMO MTG RS SBAC FLML

keep casinos on radar for tommorow

Anonymous said...

RMBS - close of the ninth bar did not take out the OR high...you have to ask yourself why? If you enter, be prepared to exit if it stalls or reverses as RMBS did. Classic case of could not clear the OR high. Also note some upper tails on previous candles...

GILD - I DO see what you were looking at in that bar/in that set-up. I would not have taken it but cannot really verbalize why. Let me think about it...

X

John said...

Hello Everyone,

Today I filled my daily stop loss quota in PALM. I went long off the 7th bar and was stopped out on the 11th.

This one, I probably did to myself since it was below the O.R. high. After some of the feedback I received yesterday, I felt I was probably focusing on that level too much and so I decided to try PALM when I saw it.

Barring the low entry, I'd appreciate any thoughts or comments on why the trade might have failed. Should I be trying these types of setups? Usually I won't touch anything unless it has broken out. Of course, it's not like that's been working for me either. :)

Thanks for any input.
John

oonr7 said...

@Dave... my data does show the 9th bar taking out the OR high. It was also a nr7. In hindsight... the upper tails in the previous bars were a sign of things to come. I still thought it was a good setup and that's why I took it.

Gary D. said...

oonr7, are you talking about RMBS? The ninth bar did not CLOSE above the OR high...which is all that counts.

Anthony said...

Trader X,

I would like to hear your view (and your readers' view) on this article. If you are to comment on it, may I ask that you comment it on a new post? I'm a subscriber to your RSS feed. This way I can be sure that I won't miss your input.

Thanks.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF8C6E444%2DA99F%2D434F%2D954B%2D1281FB9E8DB9%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=nwhpf

Anonymous said...

Andy, sounds like someone who could not be successful at daytrading trying to tell other people they are wrong for doing it.

It is just like any other business - some succeed, many fail. And those that fail tend to be vocal about why others should not pursue it.

TJ

bl said...

SNDK 4/15 doji exit 2 bars later at 1.38. entry too close to fib ext
RMBS 9/15 NB of morning, exit for a loss. too many wickers similar PALM set up. not alot of umph in the market today. Nice trade on PLD, was going to trade GILD 9/15 NRB of multi doji's/hugged the 5ema. Noticed alot of minimum/non gapper rockets:snda igte abmd usna sina vdsi. Do these get on anyone'scans? Today was the first time I went from stock to stock on my watchlist by pointing my mouse and clicking one by one... many rounds(27 on list). Scottrade does not have a scroll function. Does everyone have a scroll function or do they point and click? I'm thinking of putting up 24 charts and watching. Carpel tunnel syndrome feeling will follow I am sure. Thanks

Anonymous said...

HBC was the only thing closest to a traditional setup that i saw.

C.D. said...

bl, i only keep two charts up and scroll.

enjoy your comments...

Randal said...

What was your entry on HBC? I don't see it.

TonyB said...

j,

Just curious, on TIE why didn't you trade the 6th 15 minute bar? That's the break of the opening range.

TJ, nice response. It is the same as any other business. Why not write about how difficult it is to become a rock start or break into professional sports, or any profession, for that matter?

tonyB

John said...

BL,

Did you trade PALM? If so, any thoughts on the trade? I was stopped out and figured it was due to my entry being below the OR high on a break above the 7th bar. Anyway, it's good to see someone on the board actually mention a stock I traded - even if it was a loss. Maybe I'm getting closer. :)

Thanks,
John

Randy said...

John, I read your comments daily and am just curious because you seem all over the place. Why not focus on one thing like strength and a setup at or near the OR high? PALM dipped down and was weak after the gap up. You are buying a weak (or at best choppy) stock below resistance from the morning high. Seems like a losing combination.

I just think you need to focus instead of doing one thing one day, another the next. Whether it is Trader-X or something else, just focus until you can become consistent. Maybe it isn't even Trader-X style trades. Do what he says and take some of his methods and work them into your own style instead of trying to replicate him, Jamie, Victoria, etc.

I don't mean this in a negative way at all. I wish you the best of luck and good fortune. But I think you need to stop if you are trading real money and narrow your focus on something and start developing the consistency.

Jamie said...

John,

Just bad luck this time. Volume was very bullish in the first hour, so the pullback to the rising 5 period EMA would normally give the stock support before resuming the move.

Dave said...

Thanks, X and OONR7. My data (eSignal) shows the 9th bar on RMBS closing above the OR high, which is the main reason I took the trade.

I'll have to check the data in CyberTrader and see if that shows something different.

Randy said...

Jamie, what do you mean volume was bullish? And, if you really look at the chart, price didn't pullback to the 5MA...it pulled back, bounced some, and then the 5MA caught up with it.

A big difference in my opinion - a pullback to the 5MA and bounce would have more of a chance to rally. But still I don't see any kind of play in PALM.

John said...

Randy,

Thanks for the input. I'm surprised to read your comments, since I have been trying very hard to focus only on hammers at or above the OR high.

I find these hard to come by, which is why I only average one trade per day - if that. I usually sit out at least one day a week.

My thinking on PALM was probably over simplified. I saw that it had gapped up, then I saw that the first candle was weak. After that however, the price seemed to recover fairly well, I thought, until on the 6th and 7th bars it was printing hammer-like candles not too far under the OR high and bouncing off the 5EMA. They were also in the upper half of the first candle.

I would appreciate your thoughts on whether or not I interpreted this right. I have been through X's posts many times, and am finding it difficult to get much more out of them than I already have. The daily charts help, but seem to vary quite a bit from day to day.

My PALM trade today, doesn't seem too unlike Tom C's ASTI trade from 3/14 - except that ASTI broke the OR high and continued on.

As for trying to work X's methods into my own, I can't see the point. What's working for him should (eventually) work for me. The reason I'm here is because of a lack of success on my own.

Anyway, thanks again for your input. If you have an example of a setup you think might be a good one for me to focus on, that would be helpful. You mention "strength and a setup at or near the OR high" but, unfortunately, that's what I thought I had with PALM...and PCAR...and QCOM etc.

Best Regards,
John

Jamie said...

Randy,

Average daily volume for PALM is about 5 million, today's volume of 19.6 million is bullish by comparison. Much of the volume came in the first 5 - 15 min. bars as price tried to rally off of the OR low.

You're right, I mis-spoke, price tagged the rising 5 MA, it did not pull back into it.

The play that I see here is a base and break at the $19.00 level. PALM printed 4 candles which closed at or near the $19 level with the 5 ema not too far below as support. IMHO it was a good try on John's part but not a trade that I recommend.

bl said...

John,
PALM is a D setup: gap up, reverse, mostly red, close lower OR==throw it out. Yes it went up to upper OR but alot of indecision with all those wide hammers and the ema hadn't wrapped itself around the hammer.You want all the action after the OR to be in the upper 50% at least for an A set up. SIMO was one I threw out beause it closed at the low of the OR. It filled the gap, reversed and rallied 1.3 pts higher than the OR. **** happens. I didn't trade either. I just put up 18 charts(6 a screen) to monitor the Wed gap stocks, starting off with premkt then into the open. Keep working it! Good luck.

bl said...

Looks like we need the assistance of a 2x4 here....:)

Anonymous said...

randal,
it made an OR High of .30 and crossed it right before noon. there was pretty heavy buying pressure after that and blew right past the traditional target. i don't have my charts up so i forget what the candles looked like.

bl said...

Jaime,
For clarity's sake you said PALM tagged 5ema. The only tag I see is 11/15' or 6/30' bar. What bar do you have it at?The only trade I see her is the break of the 2/15' doji. Risky but it did pay off.
Thanks

Randy said...

"As for trying to work X's methods into my own, I can't see the point. What's working for him should (eventually) work for me."

John, I honestly think this is your biggest problem. I don't think many people are successful in trading by trying to copy what someone else is doing exactly. I could be wrong. But I think it takes more understanding of what is happening, rather than just copying - ie, looking for a hammer at the OR high. You need to understand the price action, what is happening in the previous bars, etc.

I don't trade exactly the way X does, but I got to where I am because of him. Jamie doesn't trade exactly the way X does, but I think X influenced his work. Victoria uses shorter timeframes, trendlines, and intraday price action - but she admits that she got profitable because of X.

I think the key is learning how to read a chart and understand the price action, how to analyze the bars, and then finding the setups that work for you.

J said...

@ Tony B: I didn't trade the TIE 6B because price had pulled too far away from the 15M and 30M EMA. When that happens price usually will come back into the 15M and 30M EMA's. I then will look for a better setup if it happens. In this case I got a better setup to execute against.

Hope that helps clarify my reasoning behind the trade.

TonyB said...

OK j, thanks. I see that.

Jamie said...

BL,

Re: PALM for clarity, I saw a tag of the 5 ema on the 7th 15 min. bar low at $18.92 using esignal.