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Monday, March 19, 2007

ABN - 031907; 15-minute chart

posted by Tom C:



Sorry for the lack on analysis yesterday - ABN gapped up and the 2nd bar moved above the OR high. ABN caught my eye as it consolidated on top of the OR high with bars 2-7. The 8th bar made a nice "lift-off" from the OR high, with support from a rising 5MA (note the bar closed strong at its high).

It followed the 5MA up nicely and tagged the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high.

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32 comments:

Gary said...

I passed on ABN this morning based on news-guess I was so wrong.

Good trades today SINA, CELG, AAPL(entry on contracting Narrow range bars)BWLD, AKAM (biggest position today-best setup-nothing to write home about--1R winner)

Misses CHAP(late day action)FISV, FWLT and MICC(both were below OR high entries but worked well if someone took em)NDAQ and of course
GROWWWWWWWWWWW ( still cursing myself here--it will take some time before I get over this one--I knew this one can move--set up exactly at OR high--can't ask for a better setup)

Anonymous said...

X, is that the trigger bar or the bar you bought?

R.J. said...

The arrow always points to the trigger bar...the entry is on the next bar when it breaks the high (or low for a short).

I caught GROW, but only for 1/2 shares. I didn't have the patience to wait for the ABN set-up - Tom C. does better with those than me. Great trade.

K said...

Gary,

can you share a little on how you found sina and fwlt? are they on a list you watch regularily or do you use some sort of screen?

thanks in advance.
k

fd said...

How do you guys trim a watchlist on a day like today when there are >100 gappers?

R.J. said...

X has posted about that in the past - check links to key posts at the top of the page.

Anonymous said...

What do you guys think of CHL today, it broke OR with a hammer on the 7th bar. I got in but was stopped out shortly after. Was there something wrong with the setup?

Anonymous said...

these were my trades.

SIRF. I went long at $28.87 on the 5th bar when it broke the previous candle's high and the opening range high. I used the 5 ema as support. Before I entered I had calculated that there could be resistance at the $29.19 area. When it started trading in that area I was thinking of taking my profit (30+ cents). But I didn't I tried to let it run and it came back and stopped my for a small gain at $28.99.

My big winner was PSPT short. I shorted on the 5th candle low at $11.95. I think it was a good entry. Narrow range, decling 5 ema gave resistance and it was below the opening range low. I rode it down and took half after a $1 gain. Then put my other half with a stop at $11 even when it was trading in the $10.80's. I got stopped on the second half for $0.95 gain. Not bad.

My losing trade of the day was HERO. I shorted on the 9th bar as it broke the opening range low. I thought the 5 ema would be a good stop and I had a good chance for 40-50 cents winner. Obviously completely wrong as I was stopped out on the next bar at $24.17.

Charles said...

chl - stalled at the 1/2 way point between the high and fib extension...

sirf - i don't see any kind of candle signal on that entry...plus a long upper tail on the 2nd bar.

hero - several lower tails prior to your entry indicate the stock was putting in a bottom...

John said...

Hi Guys,

I am looking for input on PCAR 15'. I went long on a break above the 13th bar and was stopped out on the 15th. I can't see many red flags, but maybe you guys will. What I did see, was the long upper tail on 12th bar. I figured the trade was a little riskier given that tail. The gap is $1.90. On a $74 stock, that doesn't seem excessive to me but maybe it is.

The only other items I see are the long upper tails on the first and 7th candles. I am under the impression, that once these tails are filled in, they really cease to be a factor...is that true?

I do seem to have a real knack for picking stocks that don't go. You'd think just by shear dumb luck I'd hit a runner sooner or later.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts on the trade.

John

Charles said...

john, are you asking in the context of a Trader-X setup? Because that isn't one. Your entry was way above the OR high, and the Fib extension.

John said...

Hi Guys,

I was just reviewing my chart on PCAR from today and found that it is not the same tonight. Today, the first candle had a long upper tail on it and it was around this tail that I drew my fibs.

Tonight, that tail is missing. If I draw my fibs around the new candle, I entered PCAR just about where I should have been exiting.

This is the first time I've seen this happen. Has anyone else had trouble like this? It's pretty disconcerting. I use Ameritrade's data feed with Quotetracker charts.

I guess now I'll be looking for a new platform. I'm not really in the Cybertrader league yet.

I used to use Prophet so I guess I'll go back to them.

John

Jamie said...

John,

I see a long upper shadow on the OR bar (15 min.) on my Esignal chart.

This setup is a little similar to your ESRX trade about a week and half ago. IMHO, you are waiting too long to enter your position.

PCAR held the OR low on a closing basis on the second bar. It then carved out two NR inside bars with identical lows. A break of the fourth bar high with a stop just below the two inside bars was a nice low risk entry point because price was hugging the 5 period EMA at that point. Your exit was three bars later as price tagged the OR high.

Gary D. said...

Neither RealTick or BigCharts show a long upper-tail on the 1st bar.

Jamie said...

Maybe its a bad tick. Both esignal and Stockcharts.com are printing the long upper shadow. When I drill down, they show it happening at the open on the first one minute bar.

John said...

Jamie,

You're right about this trade being similar to ESRX.

I also agree with you about my entries being too late. I try to get into a position as early as I can, but it's difficult.

I go thru my watchlist and tag the stocks that look like they may offer a setup. As the morning goes along, most of these would-be set ups fail. As this happens, I continue to highlight new stocks that might set up. Before I know it, it's noon. Sometimes I notice a setup after the fact.

This aside, there are two main reasons I don't trade earlier. The first is that many stocks are playing inside their O.R. range at this point. So I sit and wait for a breakout. The other reason is that when I do see an early breakout, the price is usually some distance from the 5EMA due to the gap.

I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this. I see plenty of stocks that take off and run from a hammer on say the third bar, but I just sit out and tell myself it was below the O.R. high so off limits. :(

Thanks,
John

Anonymous said...

John, I may be wrong but I don't think anyone ever said you cannot take an entry below the OR high. Trader-X just says it is riskier, and be aware of the increased risk.

If you have a really good set-up I would not pass it up because it is below the OR high. But make sure it is a good set-up, and not a "half-ass" set-up. And I would not take a set-up below the OR high over a set-up above the OR high, all things considered equal.

And be prepared to exit if it stalls at the OR high. Or at least take partial profits at that point.

Having said all of that, I don't see any real play in PCAR with or without an upper tail on the 1st bar.

TJ

John said...

Hi TJ,

Thanks for the input. I see what you mean. I wonder what you think of GROW today?

I clearly see the entry on the 10th bar, but what about the hammer on the 3rd? Would you consider that a good set up? It's a nice hammer, coming off the 50% and the 5EMA, but it's way below the O.R. high - so obviously I would have passed here.

I would appreciate any thoughts you have. Sometimes it's hard for me to determine what's a good set up and what's not. In hindsight, this would have been a great place to enter and is exactly what I was referring to earlier.

Thanks,
John

Jamie said...

John,

I agree with TJ re: not getting hung up about the OR high, just make sure you manage your position more closely until the OR is successfully taken out.

You might want to consider later session entries. I've noticed X post a few lately. Many of these consolidate the gap more through time as opposed to price. The later entry allows the 5 period MA to catch up to price as price consolidates sideways. Today's post is a good example.

Best of luck!

bl said...

CHL and SIRF retraced to it's 23.6 interday and SIRF retraced to it's .62 interday both riding with the 5ema. 9 of 11 opening 5 min bar >3% gap >50k >2.5 naz stocks went the way of that 5 min break. ACAD PSPT being 2 of them. 1 whipped sawed for $.25 loss, 1-0 gain, 9- $.10-1.20 gain in the first half hour. Traded SIRF 5/15 break for a loss. Nasty set up. 4th better if at all.

Anonymous said...

John, I would not trade the 3rd bar...I don't trade red hammers, and it was in the bottom of the morning's range which I usually also don't trade. In addition, the 2nd bar was wide range and weak.

TJ

Anonymous said...

John:

I, too, use Ameritrade with QT and have noticed the inconsistencies you spoke of. I also noticed two weeks ago that the volume bars were being reported differently than Prophet.net (who I use for my Gapper scans). There are some volume-based trades that I take and I missed some nice ones due to the skewed information.

Philip

Barry A. said...

"The gap is $1.90. On a $74 stock, that doesn't seem excessive to me but maybe it is."

X does not really make an issue about the size of the gap, he says watch out for a very wide range bar AFTER the gap because the stock may have made a great deal of its move in that one bar. Better to have a big gap with some narrow range bars, and then price take off from there IMO.

bidmarket said...

I don't know if anyone else has or sees this problem. I am using esignal and when I am looking at the chart as the bars develop, there is a good amount of space between the bar and the 5 ema. However, after the chart develops for a few more bars, that bar that had a large space between it and the 5ema had narrowed considerabley thereby making it a candidate. Is this a scaling issue?
thank you

Charles said...

I don't use esignal, but there is no way the location of the 5MA should change several bars later. Can you get the exact price when the bar is done, and check it 5-6 bars later to see if it is still the same? If it is - say - 20.36 when the bar is done forming you should be able to check back later in the day and it still be at 20.36 for that bar (at that point in time).

If it isn't, I would be looking for other software.

OONR7 said...

the 5ema (or any moving average) will move depending on the action of the price. If price makes a large move upward, you'll notice the 5ema on a particular candle from prior to the move will be higher than when you originally looked at it. It's a 'moving' average, it has to change.

Anonymous said...

ooonr7, that is not true. It is based on the periods leading up to that bar, so future bars should not change a PREVIOUS bar...

If the past point of a moving average constantly changed, you would not be able to go back and study charts!

Here is an example - the third bar is done, and the moving average is at xx.xx. For the third bar (when you look back at it) it should still be at xx.xx after the fifth bar is done, after the ninth bar is done, after the thirtieth bar is done.

Of course the moving average will be different AT the fourth bar when the fourth bar is done, but you don't go back in time and change what it was AT the third bar.

TJ

OONR7 said...

yes.. I guess I did not realize what I was writing. You pretty much summed it up, but I just wanted to note that the moving average, as you're watching it during a particular candle, can change once that candle is completed.
Blame it on my fuzzy math.

Tom said...

A moving average's value at a previous point in time should not be affected by future bars. That would render them completely useless as a tool for analysis.

Once that value is set, it does not change.

Anonymous said...

oonr7 - that is true, but everything changes during the candle forming - including the candle itself. That is why you don't make a trading decision until the candle for the timeframe you are looking at is done...it may look like a hammer mid-way through and end us a really weak candle!

oonr7 said...

@anon... I know, never said I trade before a candle is finished. Simply stating that the moving average can vary up until the candle is completed. Clear?

Brian said...

oonr7, I didn't say you did. I was making a comparison between the fact that looking at a MA before the timeframe is done is the same as looking at a candle before the timeframe is done...bad to do in either case.