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Thursday, March 22, 2007

HES - 032207; 15-minute chart

posted by Tom C:

The entry was below the OR high - just barely. But I could not resist a break of the 3rd bar high. The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high and was hit just after noon.



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20 comments:

Anonymous said...

can anyone comment on INTU. I entered on the 5th candle when it broke the 4th candle low.

The only thing in hindsight I can see why it didn't work is that it was too far from the 5 ema.

Was this the only red flag?

It worked intially and I was in the money but it turned and stopped me out for a small loss.

OONR7 said...

nice catch, excellent trade Tom.

Charles said...

1st bar was really wide range. It shot its load in that one bar. X always warns about this, but most people don't listen.

Anonymous said...

i traded intu off 5min pattern 3rd bar break. lower the time frame, more false signals and noise but it was very clean on 5min.
me

bl said...

Nice X trade on HES. Awfull execututions on INTU -4/15 doji, ARXT 1/15 WB way soon, IMCL 9/15 hammer, MLHR 4/15 WB hammer(no trade). All had 1/15 WB of 1.20/1.5/.80/.80. HES .55. Size matters. Was going to short MHLR, but the 4/15 was WB even though hammer and hit the ema.

cheezyfool said...

man. i got in HES at the same time, mostly due to seeing the same things. i thought things were working out pretty well but as you can see the next bar spiked up and then spiked right back down and i set my stops a little bit too strict. so i got out at the bottom of the next bar and went on to do other things.... only to come back and see HES take off. I'll admit the natural gas number spooked me a bit.

cheezyfool said...

as for anonymous's first post. i was in INTU as well but got out for a few cents cuz i just didn't think it was going to work. i think you have to keep in mind that even if all the stars align there is no such thing as a 100% winning play.

bl said...

X would you have traded -4/15 MLHR? It is a WB hammer but touched the 5ema. Thanks

Zoomie said...

Charles, it took me a year and 2 months to listen. You can lead a horse to water, but you an't make him drink.

Gaptrader88 said...

Cwtr might be setting up good luck all. 10.49am Fri

Clive J said...

Hi Gaptrader88,

I'm watching CWTR, at the mo. Did you get in?

I'm still bashing myself over the head after missing an easy dollar in 5 minutes on DCX. Got in at 81.74 & am still there!

Quite a few opportunuties for a change. I did PWER, GROW and DNA, already. 15 min set-ups.

Did you find anything else?

Clive J

gary said...

https://www2.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8033907829359624288&postID=823197139369619586

John and Bleggio,

your questions answered :) sorry about delay

Gaptrader88 said...

Clive your GROW and PWER were nice and quick $$$. Yes, I was in CWTR, it was like watching paint dry. But finally hit the target around 20.17.
:)

Clive J said...

Gaptrader88, what entry got you into CWTR?

DCX finally gave me a buck before I quit for an early close.

Un unusually fruitful Friday for me!

Have a good weekend, all.

Clive J

Clive J said...

If anyone is "working" this weekend, I would appreciate comments regarding my DNA trade yesterday.

I saw a gap down & a bullish 1st 15min bar on high relative volume. This was followed by a bearish hanging-man. Bar 3 continued the retracement down, and the 4th bar closed below the OR low, albeit with a tail. The 5th bar was a bearish hanging-man closing slightly lower than the previous bar.

I chose to enter below the CLOSE of the 5th bar, very close to the 5ema.

My general question is this: Does it make sense to enter below the hanging-man CLOSE as I did, or is there an important reason I've missed for waiting for the LOW to be taken out?

This particular trade ie perhaps not a good example, but a hanging-man candle can leave a long tail which does 3 things:- the entry is further away from the 5ema, the stop is greater, and the profitability of the trade is reduced (assuming it works!)

Any thoughts??

Clive J

Gary said...

Clive J

Just a thought that if you wait for the low to be taken out your probability increases--think in term of people who are long too--where would there logical stop be?? right below the low right?? where would other shorts enter?? right below the low right?? cummulative effect.

Its a game of probability--you try to increase your probabilities with whatever edge you get. Even after all that its still not 100% that it will work but I d rather take a trade that has high probability than a coin toss--other thing is as long as you define your risk, over the years you will learn more hence be more profitable ( hopefully)--experience and knowledge will probably add to your profitability over the years assuming you stick around--lots of people who pass thru first or second year of trading actively go on to be successful ( again probability not 100% surity)

As far as waiting to enter for low to be taken out even though you say hanging man can leave a long tail--I d suggest defining your profit target before hand--see what kind of return you are getting compared to what the probability of success is--keep a journal it helps a lot when you review after a month, 2 months, a year.

Clive J said...

Thanks for your insight Gary.

Very interesting to consider others trading on the "other" side. I tend to so wrapped up in my own trade, I don't even think about anything but what the chart is doing from my own perspective.

In fact I do keep a log of sorts, but I have only been recording the trades by type, results & P&L details. Also comments when I've made a loss. Perhaps I shoud enhance it.

How do you quantify probability of success?

Clive J

Gary said...

quantifying probability of success?? I dont trade only X type trades but some otehrs too so my journal entry reads something like this

symbol

intialrisk

gain/loss

trade type ( x type, swing, scalp, fib play etc etc)

added more shares yes/no

total profit

total profit vs $ risked

comments :this is where I would put comments from 20/20 hindsight, something that I overlooked or other comments.


mostly at end of month I will tally number of winners and losers total and for each trade type. When you see whats working you will quantify the risk here.

if you go up a few posts I posted link to my set up you can view a couple of trades other than X type trades on there.

Trader-X said...

Gary - what is your url?

gary said...

http://calmtrading.blogspot.com/

there it is--hope that works