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Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Viewer Mail and a few charts

I received the following email from Richard:

"I have struggled to be consistent over the past few years, and although I have seen you write more than once "focus on one or two set-ups and you can make a living", I never did. My biggest issue is thinking I always need to be in a trade, I always need to be trading, and I always have to find a set-up. But it hit me at the end of 2008 that I am good at trading a few set-ups, and if I just concentrate on those and quit trying to trade everything that comes along or worse yet force trades when I shouldn't be trading at all, I would be better off. So far so good, I've had my most profitable two months in a long time. And my losing trades have dwindled down. I just wanted to drop you a quick note and say thanks."

Thank-you Richard. Your email will probably cause some people to stop and think, and to be honest I can't add anything to it...you have delivered some great insight.

Here are a few charts for you guys to mull over.

I am posting the charts below above because they are setups that will be key to my 2009 trading. Ignore the timeframes and the specific symbols and look at the patterns - they happen every day, but people tend to miss them because they are chasing other setups or they are already in trades that are substandard (ie, trades that are not good setups...but you feel the urge to be in a trade - any trade - and you give into it).



wolverine said...

X --

I don't understand the DB trade. Second bar or fourth bar entry?

Also, so many 10 min charts this month...what % of the time do you look at 10 minute charts, as opposed to 5 or 15?

Anonymous said...

My guess, 4th bar "fill in the tail" from x's setups in the past. Great setup and trade.


wolverine said...

RJ and X --

That was my guess too, because of X's comments earlier about not trading the first 30 minutes.

Two minuses that might have made me pass on that 4th bar were that it seemed to have a lot of space to the 5 EMA, (X -- sorry if you've answered this before, but do you still use the 5 EMA?) and to me it seemed like it had moved too far above the ORH. That's why you're the master.

X -- can I also ask, how did you exit this one? On my charts, price never reached the fib. ext., but fell about 28 cents short. 8th bar was bearish engulfing, but since it closed above the 5 EMA, would you have held on, ending up with a BE trade or small profit?

Todd said...

Wolverine, if you look in comments a few posts back X told me he was using that day's price action for his trading. That is what I guessed a few weeks back when he started talking about simplifying and only trading the first few hours of the day. So I am guessing he is drawing Fibs over the first 30-minutes.

I can't speak to the EMAs, I don't use them.

Take care.

JF David said...

DB found support at FE100% of the base(28$). The 2nd bar is an inside bar and a good entry point. The HOD(high of day) is about FE162%. Manage chart action to protect your profits.