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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

COG - 022311

Promoted from comments:

"X, today was my best day in a long time. Thank you for all of your guidance and for keeping a great site for so long. I had several profitable "u-turn" setups and several profitable "beyond the Fibonacci extension setups". I wanted to ask you about one in particular, COG, and see if you would have taken it. I entered on a break of the seventh bar's high with the following rationale:

1.) Support from the 5EMA.
2.) Second time through the Fibonacci extension (the fourth bar closed above it previously).
3.) The seventh bar (trigger bar) closed at a new morning high.

The only issue I see is that my trigger bar was somewhat overextended (after the first bar, it was the widest range of the morning). Thoughts? My exit was at $45, which is another trick I learned from you. I watched $44 closely and would have exited if price broke below the 5EMA. It didn't, and I ended up with almost a 4% gain.

Thanks again.


PS - my chart parameters are 5-minute, Fibonacci plotted from the previous day's low to the current day's open, and 5/8/100EMA."

Todd, I think you had a solid analysis of your setup. I didn't trade COG, but had I seen it I would have given it serious consideration. I see what you mean about the wide-range trigger bar, but as you pointed out it had solid support from the 5EMA and closed at a new high for the day. Nice trade!

Here is Todd's trade with the trigger bar and exit marked:



Ken said...

Love the blog X, and have started som more gapper type plays in my own trading. Really nice to see actual trades posted, as I think this is one of the best ways to learn.

I also traded COG today, but jumped the gun a little bit. I was using 3-min chart, and I wrote in my blog that if I had waited for the 9-bar EMA to get closer before entering, I would have had a nice win instead of a loss.http://tinyurl.com/6gypgjh

Roger said...

Good trade Todd, thanks for sharing.

Times of Your Life said...

ah nice trade Todd...
i was scared to get in myself, and it just moved up all day...

loanme5 said...

What is your process for putting together or finding set ups that you test? I've watched you make adjustments over the years and always wondered what was going on underneath those patterns that I don't seem to grasp. I guess I am asking what are the basic fundamentals of all set ups that you feel make up a quality set up and trigger? You often say, "trade what works best for you", but sometimes I struggle with even knowing where to start knowing what works best for me. Hence, I still find myself "chasing success" every now and then.
And if I have not said it in awhile, thanks for everything that you do. If not for you, I would have been out of this business long ago.

john said...

re Todd's trade ...there is a cleaner entry on the take out of the 9th bar high on the 10 minute chart. What is your opinion about shopping time frames when the initially considered one fails to meet your rules?

Thanks ..and good to see you back.