There is some great feedback and analysis from readers in the "comments" of the last post. Since tomorrow is a market holiday, I will try to look at a few of the trades mentioned and do some analysis, and maybe post one or two as well (or, maybe I will enjoy the nice weather and not make it back here until Tue or Wed!).
Here is some reader analysis worth sharing:
Kris C. said...
Chips and Salsa, if I may I would like to comment on your trade vs. X's trade because this is exactly the thing that used to screw me up. First and what I consider the key difference - X's trade gaps up above the previous day's range/outside the previous day's range. Your trade gaps up into the middle of the previous day's range. Avoiding your trade type and taking X's trade type will increase your wins substantially. Second, you are below the 100EMA which means you have overhead resistance. Third, if you follow standard pivot lines, your stock's price is bouncing all around the pivot point which adds to the choppiness and indecision. Finally, your pullback actually penetrates deeper into what X calls the retracement zone. It is not a clean bounce off the top, and technically the upper white line of the retracement zone, the 38.2% retracement, is going to be resistance when price tries to move back up.
Again, I make these comments in a positive spirit. I used to do the exact same things as you, and another commenter pointed out these things to me and my trading drastically improved. I hope my comments help you in kind.
Kris' comments were in response to this question:
Chips and Salsa said...
X,
The trade I took today is eerily similar, but I had a different outcome. I seem to have a knack for picking all of the fake-outs. GMCR, 5-min, PDC to CDO, 5EMA, entry on break above the 6th bar.
Set-up is exactly the same as ZMH in that the trigger bar hovers above the Fib Ext, but rests squarely on the RZ if Fib lines are instead drawn for the low/high of the morning's range.
Entry was at $42.11, just above the whole number. I keep getting stuck in these range-bound drifters or getting stopped out altogether.
Perhaps GMCR's morning range is too wide? It doesn't seem much wider than ZMH's morning range, but perhaps I'm wrong.
If GMCR didn't show up as a candidate for you this morning, then perhaps it's my candidate scanning that is flawed.
Any feedback is much appreciated, and thank you for all the great examples over the recent weeks.
Read all the comments here.
_______________
Mentoring: The Key to Developing as a Trader
6 days ago
4 comments:
X the SPWRA trade 8/5" hammerish break/failure just above .38F level pdc-cdo RZ was a Friday trade. I went back to 24Oct2010 to relook at all the charts(22), mostly 2 min and long only and here's what I found:
3-"u" turns: bounce off pdc-cdo RZ
5-break or slight pullback of oh
opening high, 100ema
-have a 2' and 5' chart side by side(like you used to have the 15/30)
-trade stocks that have alot of green candles: oh, fe break, retest fe, beyond fe
-toss stocks that break the opening low 2 or 5 min bar, or side line them
-toss stocks to close to previous days lower range...dead cat bounce?
Thoughts??
Nothing wrong with premkt selections like intu apei arun alny woof...eps plays. I have a WL of 1600 and add/subract premkt/ah. Click the most up/dn and click over top 40 to another clear WL and cull low volume, et al.
X do you use pts up/dn or % up/dn?Thanks
edit-
"I went back to 24Oct2010 to relook at all your's, Tom C's, promoted charts(22), mostly 2 min and long only and here's what I found:
3-"u" turns: bounce off pdc-cdo RZ
5-break or slight pullback of oh
opening high
6-break of the fe(pdc-cdo)
7-retest of fe
1-beyond fe
22-above 100ema
What it means to me is:
-have a 2' and 5' chart side by side(like you used to have the 15/30)
-trade stocks that have alot of green candles: oh, fe break, retest fe, beyond fe
-toss stocks that break the opening low 2 or 5 min bar, or side line them
-toss stocks close to previous days lower range or below 100ema...dead cat bounce?
-by 9:45 you are scrolling thru the charts. Or sooner?
Thoughts
Kris C.
This was a great, great comment.
"Avoiding your trade type and taking X's trade type will increase your wins substantially." I think you point to the core of what X teaches, (and so many of us ignore) - trade selection, or probably better stated, "deselection." (If that is a word?)
I have many days and weeks of good trading. Then something happens and I start losing frequently. Eventually I figure out why. It is because I stopped doing what you pointed out... avoiding mediocre set ups.
So thanks for that comment. It really resonates with me.
X,
Thanks for taking the time to examine this obstacle in my trading and for answering all of my queries now and in months past. You are a generous guy!
Post a Comment