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Wednesday, March 14, 2007

ASTI - 031407; 15-minute chart

posted by Tom C:



ASTI gapped up and after a pullback, rallied to the OR high. The 9th bar closed at its high and above the OR high, with solid support from a rising 5MA.

I entered on a break of the 9th bar's high, and sold at the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high.

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28 comments:

Roger said...

Nice trade Tom C. Would you have entered the trade if the ninth candle left a small upper tail?

ADD Trader said...

Hi Tom,

Great trade. Did the upper tail on the 6th bar give you any pause?

Thanks,
ADD Trader

Anonymous said...

Roger, I doubt it. If I am not buying based on a candle pattern (hammer, etc.) then I want to see a strong bar closing at its high as it crosses a specific level. Had it left an upper tail but still closed above the OR high, I probably would have passed.

Tom C.

Anonymous said...

on the 6th bar? No, the trigger bar closed above it as well as the OR high.

Tom C.

Anonymous said...

I don't see that as a great trade, you left money on the table.

Anonymous said...

lol. I prefer to think that I made over 10% on one low risk trade.

But thanks for your input anonymous.

Tom C.

ADD Trader said...

Hi Tom,

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood, I thought you entered when the 9th bar broke the OR high.

ADD Trader

FlyingJ said...

What an idiot. I am sure he always buys at the low and sells at the high.

Good trade Tom C.

Anonymous said...

add, sorry - a break of the 9th bar high. I made it more clear in the post...

Tom C.

Anonymous said...

i shorted FCGI right when it broke 9.80.

bl said...

Tom C, nice trade. 4 hammer/30m break looked good too .06 shy of OR, and 5ema though next bar low bounced off it. Would you have traded that, .24 risk?
I did a real X trade today and boy did I let out a howl of joy! I think it was my first one and saw it through. CTV 6 doji/10m(4 hammer/15), .27 risk, put limit to sell a 1 pt later and did, and reversed on the 1.38Fib!! Unreal it works. Thanks guys. I went thru a bunch of gap no gap stocks last night and it came to me you can trade any stock using candle sticks if you spot the right NR bar and surroundings and trade with it. ESE 3/10 BIG 6/10. (15min charts have wrong nyse data on Scottrade)
Thanks alot!

Tom T. said...

While there were some nice set-ups today it seemed like you could throw darts and find a good stock to trade. Check out AFFX and NFI as the more x-style type of set-ups.

Brad said...

Nice trade Tom C.

FCGI was nice too.

Ted said...

Good trade bl. I traded AFFX off the 3rd bar.

TonyB said...

Tom,

It's nice to know I was looking at the exact same trade, but I missed it. Maybe because Tradestation had the high of the OR at 6.66 (for real) and the breakout occurred on the 5th bar, not the 9th. I'm not sure how I missed it. I was probably looking at another setup. I can't figure out how to paste a Tradestation chart to show you what I mean.

TonyB

John said...

Hi Guys,

I guess my darts were off today. I got stopped out on QCOM.

I went long on a break of the the daily high at $43.34 on a 10' chart. I watched QCOM climb to the O.R. high. The 7th bar formed a long upper tail and closed below the O.R. high. The 8th bar was narrow range and essentially filled in the tail on the 7th (not quite). It closed just under the O.R. high and left a tiny upper tail. Here QCOM was two cents below the high of the day, so I placed my entry at a break of that point.

9th candle closed weak and that was it - stopped out on the 10th.

Two things 1) I was aware of the tail on the 7th bar, but dismissed it when it was filled in on the following candles and 2) I knew I wasn't trading a specific candle pattern (only a NR just under the O.R. high). In spite of these things, I traded it anyway. Why? I see these setups work over and over again while I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect entry. I can't make a living at trading on say one or two trades per week. If I wait for everything to be just right on a trade, this seems to be about the number I can find. :( And these still tend to stop me out. There are more than one or two a week, of course, but I've always just missed the entry or don't see see it until well after the fact, etc. Sooner or later, I have to try to trade something or else what's the point? I could see looking at things differently if I were overtrading, but I seldom make more than one trade per day and then not every day.

ASTI on the 10' chart seems very similar to me with the exception that it printed a NR hammer. QCOM set up first, so I took it - got burned and sat out on ASTI. Also, I didn't like the way ASTI hovered near the bottom of its range for a large part of the morning. I took this as a sign of weakness. In addition, it was further below the O.R. high than QCOM.

Stopped out yesterday and again today, that makes 5 days in a row now, so any input would be appreciated. What made you guys steer clear of QCOM and go for ASTI instead?

Thanks for the insight.
John

Rahul said...

Nice trade Tom C

I have been following your trades for a while and would like to thank you for the learning experience.

I was wondering do you think that your method is portable to a much smaller timeframe? say 1 mi charts?

Rahul
www.tradernirvana.com

Rahul said...

Actually, never mind, I just read your link about shorter timeframes :)

Thanks,
Rahul

Anonymous said...

I don't trade a 10-minute chart, but I will say that if your target is the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high, then based on where you entered it was only .15 away. It came close and then reversed - that is what usually happens in the type of trades we do which is why the Fib extension is the target.

I would say you have to look for stocks that have more potential, and enter close to the OR with support from the 5MA.

And papertrade until you figure it out - don't lose your money in the process!

BTW, it takes a lot of studying to become successful imo, and you mention 5 days. For most people it takes months, if not years.

TJ

QQQBall said...

today felt like a day to go long... but did anyone trade DTPI?

bl said...

Some other gappers that came up but I didn't bother to follow on 10m chart: rads 3/10 ese 4/10 affx 4/10 and 2 racers: big gnss. Other wise alot of retracement of homes, etc. March madness...

John said...

Hi TJ,

I've actually been at this for a little over 10 years now...unfortunately never successful, but still trying. :)

You are right about the fib target. I had my range drawn around the first 30 minutes. Much the same as Victoria does on her blog.

I've noticed over the last few months, that consistently, if the price breaks out of the range of the first 30 minutes, it hits what I call the "crash zone". This is the zone between the 138.2% and the 161.8% fib extensions of the first 30 minutes. It almost always stalls here and many times reverses. It seems to me, that only if it can break through this zone can it then go on to the 138.2% fib extension target of the hi/lo of today's O.R. to the hi/lo of yesterday. Has anyone else noticed this?

Anyway, if you draw your fib range around the first 30' minutes, the 8th bar was the breakout. QCOM was the exception to this "crash zone" rule. It broke out of its O.R. but didn't make it.

Most of the time, this zone is my target. I don't have much luck picking stocks that make it to X's fib target.

Obviously, after 10 years of trading on paper and for real and achieving no success, my enthusiasm for trading is waning. I still think it would be the best job in the world however and so I keep going.

Let me know what you think of the crash zone.

Best Regards,
John

sedit said...

John,

One thing that I look for on top of the intraday setup is what is the gap at in relation with the daily chart. I pass qcom mainly on this reason.. Qcom up 2 days and then gaps up again into a major daily resistance area( by definition is an exhausion gap)

now look at ASTI. this is an explosive Breakaway gap that is over 52 weeks high (also all new time high) this gap also cause a *short squeeze* mode that further fueled the force buying!

Classic chart patterns by THomas bulkowski explains how to identify and label gaps in his book. ( check amazon.com) learning how to identify then ahead of the time can help you to increase the odds on an intraday play.

Hope this helps you.

BTW QCOM will be a good watch on thursday if it can do what it did today and breaks out around that 43.60 zone ( should get some short squeeze going)

Anonymous said...

I too was stopped out of QCOM, but traded ASTI twice for a decent run up. Was wondering how often you get stopped out of a trade, only to have it rally back up by day end. I am new at this and have noticed that if I have a stop of 20c below my entry price, it often gets hit.

Thanks in advance for the info.

TraderJJ

bl said...

John/TJ,
Good analysis and
1) QCOM is a big cap stock plods along with not alot of movement, but notice that Wed's 43.21 is the 1.38 fib ext from Mon's lo to Tues OR high. A 2 day gap in a big cap might be something to consider.
2) X talks about that stalling out too in one of his Key Posts
3)watch for the 5ema curling up near the OR high on ASTI 10/15/30 m charts. Positive.
4)Both had good news
TJ I keep challenging my process of everything to make it comfortable and simple and workable,
like What am I doing, What is my thinking, Is it working, Why not, What is my thinking, What do I need to do, etc. Good luck to all of us.

Larry said...

John, just my opinion but you seem to make things too complicated. That is fine if you are profitable, but if you are trying to become profitable try KISS. X hammers it in that you should focus on one or two setups. Try that, look for hammers at the 5 around the OR high.

Chris said...

John - a few comments. Why trade 10-minute charts? I don't think there are any on this blog. Try 15 and once you nail those then switch to the shorter timeframe.

Having said that, I am not sure why you are drawing Fibs that way either. Again, I have never seen that on X's blog.

But if I look at the 10-minute chart and draw Fibs as you described, why QCOM didn't work is really simple - it never closed above the OR high. It left tails above that level but always fell to close below it. So obviously there was alot of resistance there.

Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,

Thanks yet again for all the input.

Larry, you make an excellent point, but I don't seem to find many of those hammers. Maybe two a week. If your only going to make two or three trades a week, they really need to be successful in order to keep trading interesting. Mine seldom are. So I tend to look for other signals as well.

Chris, I picked up on the 10 min charts about 7 weeks ago on Victoria's blog. Also, the notion of drawing the fibs this way.

Once I started drawing the fibs around the first 30 minutes (V actually draws hers around the morning swing - not just the first 30'), I began to realize that the price was stalling out at the fib extension of that range.

Seeing this was an incentive to continue this way. About 3 weeks ago, however, I switched back to X's fib method on a 15' chart and returned to total failure (I've been trying X's methods for about 4 months with no success...but here's hopin'!). That's why yesterday I thought I'd revisit Victoria's shorter timeframe and see what came of it.

Thanks again for all the comments. I know I'll get this down sooner or later.

John