ASTI gapped up and after a pullback, rallied to the OR high. The 9th bar closed at its high and above the OR high, with solid support from a rising 5MA.
I entered on a break of the 9th bar's high, and sold at the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high.
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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, asti
25 comments:
Nice trade Tom C. Would you have entered the trade if the ninth candle left a small upper tail?
Hi Tom,
Great trade. Did the upper tail on the 6th bar give you any pause?
Thanks,
ADD Trader
Roger, I doubt it. If I am not buying based on a candle pattern (hammer, etc.) then I want to see a strong bar closing at its high as it crosses a specific level. Had it left an upper tail but still closed above the OR high, I probably would have passed.
Tom C.
on the 6th bar? No, the trigger bar closed above it as well as the OR high.
Tom C.
I don't see that as a great trade, you left money on the table.
lol. I prefer to think that I made over 10% on one low risk trade.
But thanks for your input anonymous.
Tom C.
Hi Tom,
Sorry, I guess I misunderstood, I thought you entered when the 9th bar broke the OR high.
ADD Trader
add, sorry - a break of the 9th bar high. I made it more clear in the post...
Tom C.
i shorted FCGI right when it broke 9.80.
Tom C, nice trade. 4 hammer/30m break looked good too .06 shy of OR, and 5ema though next bar low bounced off it. Would you have traded that, .24 risk?
I did a real X trade today and boy did I let out a howl of joy! I think it was my first one and saw it through. CTV 6 doji/10m(4 hammer/15), .27 risk, put limit to sell a 1 pt later and did, and reversed on the 1.38Fib!! Unreal it works. Thanks guys. I went thru a bunch of gap no gap stocks last night and it came to me you can trade any stock using candle sticks if you spot the right NR bar and surroundings and trade with it. ESE 3/10 BIG 6/10. (15min charts have wrong nyse data on Scottrade)
Thanks alot!
While there were some nice set-ups today it seemed like you could throw darts and find a good stock to trade. Check out AFFX and NFI as the more x-style type of set-ups.
Nice trade Tom C.
FCGI was nice too.
Good trade bl. I traded AFFX off the 3rd bar.
Tom,
It's nice to know I was looking at the exact same trade, but I missed it. Maybe because Tradestation had the high of the OR at 6.66 (for real) and the breakout occurred on the 5th bar, not the 9th. I'm not sure how I missed it. I was probably looking at another setup. I can't figure out how to paste a Tradestation chart to show you what I mean.
TonyB
Nice trade Tom C
I have been following your trades for a while and would like to thank you for the learning experience.
I was wondering do you think that your method is portable to a much smaller timeframe? say 1 mi charts?
Rahul
www.tradernirvana.com
Actually, never mind, I just read your link about shorter timeframes :)
Thanks,
Rahul
I don't trade a 10-minute chart, but I will say that if your target is the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high, then based on where you entered it was only .15 away. It came close and then reversed - that is what usually happens in the type of trades we do which is why the Fib extension is the target.
I would say you have to look for stocks that have more potential, and enter close to the OR with support from the 5MA.
And papertrade until you figure it out - don't lose your money in the process!
BTW, it takes a lot of studying to become successful imo, and you mention 5 days. For most people it takes months, if not years.
TJ
today felt like a day to go long... but did anyone trade DTPI?
Some other gappers that came up but I didn't bother to follow on 10m chart: rads 3/10 ese 4/10 affx 4/10 and 2 racers: big gnss. Other wise alot of retracement of homes, etc. March madness...
John,
One thing that I look for on top of the intraday setup is what is the gap at in relation with the daily chart. I pass qcom mainly on this reason.. Qcom up 2 days and then gaps up again into a major daily resistance area( by definition is an exhausion gap)
now look at ASTI. this is an explosive Breakaway gap that is over 52 weeks high (also all new time high) this gap also cause a *short squeeze* mode that further fueled the force buying!
Classic chart patterns by THomas bulkowski explains how to identify and label gaps in his book. ( check amazon.com) learning how to identify then ahead of the time can help you to increase the odds on an intraday play.
Hope this helps you.
BTW QCOM will be a good watch on thursday if it can do what it did today and breaks out around that 43.60 zone ( should get some short squeeze going)
I too was stopped out of QCOM, but traded ASTI twice for a decent run up. Was wondering how often you get stopped out of a trade, only to have it rally back up by day end. I am new at this and have noticed that if I have a stop of 20c below my entry price, it often gets hit.
Thanks in advance for the info.
TraderJJ
John/TJ,
Good analysis and
1) QCOM is a big cap stock plods along with not alot of movement, but notice that Wed's 43.21 is the 1.38 fib ext from Mon's lo to Tues OR high. A 2 day gap in a big cap might be something to consider.
2) X talks about that stalling out too in one of his Key Posts
3)watch for the 5ema curling up near the OR high on ASTI 10/15/30 m charts. Positive.
4)Both had good news
TJ I keep challenging my process of everything to make it comfortable and simple and workable,
like What am I doing, What is my thinking, Is it working, Why not, What is my thinking, What do I need to do, etc. Good luck to all of us.
John, just my opinion but you seem to make things too complicated. That is fine if you are profitable, but if you are trying to become profitable try KISS. X hammers it in that you should focus on one or two setups. Try that, look for hammers at the 5 around the OR high.
John - a few comments. Why trade 10-minute charts? I don't think there are any on this blog. Try 15 and once you nail those then switch to the shorter timeframe.
Having said that, I am not sure why you are drawing Fibs that way either. Again, I have never seen that on X's blog.
But if I look at the 10-minute chart and draw Fibs as you described, why QCOM didn't work is really simple - it never closed above the OR high. It left tails above that level but always fell to close below it. So obviously there was alot of resistance there.
Hi Guys,
Thanks yet again for all the input.
Larry, you make an excellent point, but I don't seem to find many of those hammers. Maybe two a week. If your only going to make two or three trades a week, they really need to be successful in order to keep trading interesting. Mine seldom are. So I tend to look for other signals as well.
Chris, I picked up on the 10 min charts about 7 weeks ago on Victoria's blog. Also, the notion of drawing the fibs this way.
Once I started drawing the fibs around the first 30 minutes (V actually draws hers around the morning swing - not just the first 30'), I began to realize that the price was stalling out at the fib extension of that range.
Seeing this was an incentive to continue this way. About 3 weeks ago, however, I switched back to X's fib method on a 15' chart and returned to total failure (I've been trying X's methods for about 4 months with no success...but here's hopin'!). That's why yesterday I thought I'd revisit Victoria's shorter timeframe and see what came of it.
Thanks again for all the comments. I know I'll get this down sooner or later.
John
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