STEC - 092906; 30-minute chart

posted by Tom C:

I did not find a lot of opportunity on Friday. Here is a trade I did take, and it is another example of the "U" set-up I have talked about recently.

The entry was below the OR high, so X's standard disclaimer applies*. It was a lower priced stock, and the % return was around 3%. Note the reversal as it tagged the Fibonacci extension.




*as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, stec

Housekeeping

I just discovered dummyspots.com, and there is some good content there.

Also, I am finding a lot of good stuff at Wall St. Warrior, Mercado de Estocastica, and Ugly Chart (check out his "A dummy a day" posts).

Of course, all the blogs on my BlogRoll (right side) are great - check them out.

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Tags:
trader-x, trading, blogs

Friday's action

Light posting yesterday and today, but I will put some charts up this weekend. Finish the week strong, and feel free to post in "Comments".




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Tags:
trader-x

Deep thoughts

From my last "gap sources" post:
"Keep in mind you will NEVER get all of the gappers - nor would you want to; it would be difficult to manage a watchlist of 100-200 stocks every day. Accept that you will always miss something, and focus on finding the really good set-ups from the list that you have."

And don't worry if you missed a set-up we post on the blog. In fact, you should WANT to see set-ups you missed, so you can learn from them. If we only post the same things you trade, the blog would be useless!

Someone asked in comments if I only trade 30-minute charts now, as I have not posted any 15-minute charts lately. I HAVE been trading more 30-minute charts because I am experimenting with a few things that I will post about later this week (or weekend) - so stay tuned. But, it does not really matter if the charts we post are 15- or 30-minute timeframes. A set-up is a set-up, and it really looks the same on either. So focus on studying the chart and don't worry about what timeframe it is.

Now go forth and don't make any mediocre trades!

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Tags:
trader-x, trading

Priorities

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Tags:
trader-x

Wednesday's charts

There are some good comments on Tom C.'s last post - check them out.

A lot of you caught FUL today, which I actually missed. But here is a nice long and a short that returned ~6%. The analysis is brief as I am heading out for the night!

ADCT, 30-minute chart



Entry was a break of the third bar high, which was a narrow-range (NRM) inside bar.


ACOR, 30-minute chart



Entry was a break of the second bar low - both the first and second bars left upper tails and closed weak, and the second bar closed below the OR low.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, adct, acor

I love BREAKING NEWS!

posted by Tom C:

Hey X, I like CNBC going crazy. I am finding some great set-ups today. Check out BOBJ, break of the 2nd bar high as it moved above the retracement zone (and now above the Fibonacci extension).

Here is the chart - read my analysis in "Comments" of this post:




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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, bobj

BREAKING NEWS!

What is with CNBC going crazy about the Dow? I saw "BREAKING NEWS" and thought we invaded Iran.

Good comments below by T.C.

Also, check out this post by (Dr.) Brett - "Trading to Win Vs. Trading to Not Lose".

Go make some good trades!

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Tags:
trader-x

Wednesday's action

posted by Tom C:

I thought this was a great comment by T.C. in the O.C., and worth posting here:

"X, as an avid reader I have some input on alot of questions you get related to setups.

I think many of the people who come here also read other blogs like the Dummy Trades. They look at the setups in that context, without knowing how you really trade. Yes, you outline it in all of your posts and FAQ, but many do not take the time to read those.

Dummy Trades tend to be entered on narrow range bars on 30-minute charts. Alot of your trades are the same, but what people don't realize is you don't blindly enter based on a narrow range bar. You enter based on candle patterns (hammers, offsetting bars, etc.) and at points of support and resistance and when those levels are broken (Fibs, opening range high/low, moving averages). It just so happens that many of your entries are narrow range bars. But again, you don't just blindly enter based on them.

Someone else said it is the little things. I think you are much more accurate and the little things are the reason why. My suggestion is to read all of your posts on how you trade, viewer mail, and look at all the charts. It will start to become clear.

Thanks for a great blog. I am still not sure why you share so freely, but I appreciate it."

Have a good day, and post any trades in "Comments".

100106 edit (by Trader-X) - Tapeworm takes exception with the comment above. I certainly don't think T.C. meant any disrespect to "Dummy" trades - he was just trying to point out that people need to pay more attention to the details. There are so many questions posed by people who don't take the time to read the information provided, and study the details.

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Tags:
trader-x

Bayer heroin?

Every since my "friend" Big Tony was "detained", I have been looking everywhere for Bayer heroin. But, I cannot find it. Anyone know where I can get some?



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Tags:
trader-x

EYE - 092606; 30-minute chart

posted by Tom C:

EYE was a great short on an overall up day. The entry was above the OR low, so X's standard disclaimer* applies. I entered on a break of the 4th bar low, which was the NRM. The Fibonacci extension was not hit, but I held until the end of the day for a nice gain.




*as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, eye

DE - 092606; 30-minute chart

The Dow climbed to its second-highest close today.

DE offered a good set-up above the Fibonacci extension. It was a small gapper, but a gapper nonetheless!




1.) What did I see?
A gap up and wide-range, strong first and second bar. The third bar was narrow-range (NRM), and consolidated at the morning's high ABOVE the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the opening range (OR) high.
2.) What is the entry?
A break of the third bar high.
3.) What is the exit?
1/2 of the position was closed after $1 gain, the other 1/2 was held and closed at the end of the day.

Set-up grade = B - only because these entries are somewhat riskier. But, this was a great set-up.

Check out TSAI on your own - it offered a good entry on a break of the sixth or seventh bar high. It did not reach the target, but still provided a nice profit.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, de

Random thoughts

1.) I highlighted a few "bread and butter" trades yesterday, but I was looking over charts last night and noticed several similar set-ups that did not work out. I may have to consider changing the name?

2.) I am putting together a post on the first bar, and some ideas on how to tell if it is too wide. Check back later in the week.

3.) I know many of you have similar taste to me in movies and TV. I mentioned the new show "Brotherhood" a while back, and I just watched the season finale last night. It is a great show, and if you get Showtime you should catch it in repeats. If you don't get Showtime, check out the DVD. It has the Trader-X 100% satisfaction guarantee.



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Tags:
trader-x, brotherhood

Some days you're the foot...

...some days you're the javelin.



Track and field line judge Lia Mara Lourenco is helped after a javelin hit her in her foot during 'Brazil Trophy,' a national track and field competition, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2006. (AP Photo/Jonne Roriz, Agencia Estado)

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trader-x

Monday's charts

No detailed analysis today - I will leave it to you to answer the three questions.

RHAT was a variation of the "bread and butter" long with a move back above the retracement zone, a hammer, and support from a rising moving average. It did not reach the target, but was still a good trade.





ROP did hit the target, and was similar to (but a better set-up than) RHAT.




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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, rhat, rop

Welcome to a new trading week

Start the week off right and make some good trades!

And:

• Don't forget to check out my links on the lower right.
• Instant Bull is an interesting site - check it out.
• Don't forget about my fellow bloggers on my Blogroll (right side) - there is some good stuff there.

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Tags:
trader-x

MSCC - 092206; 30-minute chart

1.) What did I see?
A gap down and wide-range first bar. The second and third bars narrow in range and drift below the OR low, all closing below that level. The third bar was also an inside, narrow range (NRM) bar.
2.) What is the entry?
A break of the third bar low.
3.) What is the exit?
The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's high to the opening range low; it was hit at the end of the day.

Set-up grade = A; the entry was below the OR low and everything was in place for a nice short.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, mscc

Another gap source

Over the past few weeks we have been discussing the sources available for finding gaps - most of them free. I wanted to talk about one paid source that is probably worth most of you looking into - Trade-Ideas.

I made this post about Trade-Ideas earlier in the year. Over the past few days, I have been experimenting with Trade-Ideas to find gaps. Here is what I do - I configure an "Alert Window" to find Gaps Up and Gaps Down of 2% minimum, and Average Daily Volume of 100,000 minimum. At 9:50 EST (20 minutes after the market opens), I open the Alert Window and click the "History" link. Trade-Ideas then lists all of the stocks that meet that criteria for the morning. I do an export to Excel, and plug the stocks into my watchlist. It is fast, easy, and seems to find most of the gaps (often times more) that all of the free sources find.

I have to stress, I am using Trade-Ideas in a VERY limited way. I am probably using 1/10 of 1% of the functionality their software encompasses. I said earlier this year:

"[Trade-Ideas has] a quality product, and I have had fun experimenting with it. The bottom-line is that you can find results for just about any parameters you can imagine using their software."

I encourage you guys to try it out and see if it is a fit for you. Sign-up via this link and see what you think

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Tags:
trader-x, trade-ideas

Friday's action

MSCC was a nice short this morning. I hope everyone is having a good finish to the week.

I am behind on emails and posting, and hope to catch-up over the weekend. Check back for charts, and go do something fun!

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Tags:
trader-x

Viewer Mail - 092106

B.G. emailed me to ask why BWNG didn't work.

Looking at the chart, the first thing I notice is that the first bar is probably too wide range - I would worry that it made its entire move in that one bar.

B.G. entered on a break of the third bar high (30-minute chart). I understand the rationale - the third bar closed strong, it was a narrow-range, inside bar, and it closed near the top of the morning's range. But, it was below the OR high which means the standard disclaimer applies:

"as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension."

The fourth bar rallied through the OR high, but the fifth bar was narrow-range (NRM), with an upper and lower tail ("doji"-like, indicating indecision). This was a pretty big red flag that the rally stopped, and I would have covered on a break of the fifth bar low. Had you done so, you would have made enough to cover commission.




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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, bwng

Thursday's action

OK - rested, not hung over, ready to trade.

Feel free to post in "Comments".

Also, check out my Blogroll on the right side. I have made some new additions worth your time (for instance, Mercado de Estocástica), and of course there are some old favorites (for instance, Jamie at Wall St. Warrior; I voted for him as "Stock Pimp of 2006").

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Tags:
trader-x

NCR - 092006; 30-minute chart

I did not find a lot of opportunity today - maybe a result of my margaritas last night.

But, NCR was an interesting set-up. There were three factors that made it a buy for me - any one alone may not have been enough for me to "pull the trigger", but all three combined were a compelling reason. First, there was a set-up above the Fibonacci extension from the previous day's low to the opening range (OR) high. Next, there was support from a rising moving average. And finally, there were "offsetting bars".

The third and fourth bars closed above the Fibonacci extension, and the fifth bar declined and closed back below it. Price hit support from the rising moving average, and the sixth bar rallied from there and closed back above the Fibonacci extension. I entered on a break of the sixth bar high. I sold 1/2 of the position after $1 gain, and the remainder after price started back down following the extended, wide-range eleventh bar.





Ugly has some good things going on at his blog - check it out.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, ncr

Wednesday's action

Yesterday after the close I met some friends for fajitas and margaritas - which is why I did not get around to posting any charts.

: )

Go make some good trades. I will get some charts up later, unless I am attacked by another bottle of tequila.




P.S. - Don't forget we hear from the Fed today. And, check out Trader Mike's analysis of the Amaranth Advisors Hedge Fund blow up.

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Tags:
trader-x

Tuesday's action

Don't let the man keep you down Willie.

Feel free to post your trades and thoughts.

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Tags:
trader-x

Monday's charts

I am pressed for time, so no detailed analysis today. Answer the three questions on your own.

Here are two set-ups similar to what I mentioned in my "Chasing success" post over the weekend (especially COG):








And here is a bread and butter set-up I traded on Friday:




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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, cog, dsx, fsh

Welcome to a new trading week!

Charts later today. Check out my post below on "Chasing success". And feel free to post your thoughts and trades in "Comments".

I saw this earlier, and it reminded me of Trader Mike in his younger days!




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Tags:
trader-x

Claudio - before and after reading Trader-X

In this combination picture of before and after, Claudio Paulo Pinto pops his eyeballs out of their sockets, in Belo Horizonte, 340 kilometers (210 miles) north of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Saturday, Sept 16, 2006. Claudio Paulo Pinto is looking for work. That's his job - looking. Pinto can pop his eyeballs at least 7 millimeters (0.3 inches) out of their sockets, a national record for eye-popping according to RankBrasil, an organization modelled after the Guinness Book of World Records that lists Brazilian records. Pinto says he's been doing this since he was nine years old and 'it doesn't hurt a bit.' (AP Photo/Eugenio Savio)




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trader-x

Chasing success

I talk to numerous people through email every week who are struggling to be successful at trading. And, I find two common traits in most of them:

1.) They trade too much - most of the people struggling make multiple trades daily, some as many as 10+ round trips.
2.) They have a lack of focus.

I will start with #2. I have discussed this in the past - most people jump from indicator to indicator, timeframe to timeframe, method to method. They will use something for a few days, hit a bump, and move on to something different all together. One day the holy grail is a XX period moving average, the next day it is MACD or an oscillator. One day it is a 30-minute chart, the next day it is a 5-minute chart. One day it is buying the break of the first inside bar, the next day it is a pullback from the high.

I call this "chasing success". The bottom line is the person does not spend enough time on any one method to really understand and execute it properly. They bounce around, and before they know it a lot of time has passed and they are still struggling.

If you pick something and stick to it, you get good at it. Once you get good at it - once you perfect it, THEN you can add something else to your arsenal.

There are plenty of set-ups I have highlighted in the blog that have a 70%+ success rate. Do you want an idea? Look at 30-minute charts that break the opening range high, then pullback and consolidate with a textbook hammer at a key moving average. You may ask, "well how many of those are there a week?" My answer is a pretty high number - you just have to focus and find them. But, say you can only find 2-3 per week. Would you rather have 2-3 great trades and a positive, money making week? Or 30+ trades and a negative, losing week?

Regardless of what set-up you choose, focus on it and study 1,000's of charts. Analyze the details - does it work better when the tail of the hammer also touches the opening range (OR) high or the Fibonacci extension? What produces better results - a slow, 3-5 bar pullback or a violent 1-2 bar correction? Does it matter if the bar preceding your hammer is narrow-range or wide-range? What about the hammer being green (closing positive) vs. being red (closing negative)? Learn your set-up inside and out!

A final thought on #1 - why do you want to make 20-30 (or more!) trades a week when you are losing money? Stop trading so much! And a way to "force" yourself to do that is to FOCUS on one thing. Pick a timeframe. Pick a moving average. Pick a set-up. And wait for it to happen. What do you do while you wait? Study charts!!! And if a day passes and you do not make a trade, so be it. Look at it as a positive - you did not lose any money!

And feel free to email me when you think you study as many charts a day as I do!!!

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading

Friday's charts

posted by Tom C:

I have given a few examples of what I call the "U" set-up over the past week. CRDN is an example from Friday - after a move down it prints higher lows/higher highs with the 2nd and 3rd bars. The 3rd bar did not close above the OR high*, which made the set-up a little riskier. But, it worked out:





JDAS was an obvious short to me. A gap down and really weak, wide-range 1st bar that closes on its low. The 2nd bar rallies but leaves a small upper tail. The 3rd bar turns back down and closes weak, on its low. It is also a narrow-range, inside bar and has resistance from a declining MA. The entry was a break of the 3rd bar low*.




*as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, crdn, jdas

Thursday's charts

posted by Tom C:

I think many of us traded HANS today - it just missed the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's low to the OR high; but you should have been able to take ~$1 profit out of it.





DD was a classic X "above the Fibonacci extension" play.




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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, hans, dd

Wednesday's charts

posted by Tom C:

Sorry guys - I was supposed to post charts yesterday, but had a situation that came up and prevented me from doing so.

Here is a trade I DID NOT make, but was posted about in "Comments". I thought it was a great chart, and I will have to re-evaluate how wide is "too wide" on the first bar. RFIL, 30-minute chart:





I did trade NTGR. The entry was a break of the 4th bar high, which was the NRM and above the OR high. The only problem with NTGR is there was not a lot of room to the Fibonacci extension (of the previous day's low to the OR high); I was banking that it would break through that level - had it not done so, I would have closed the position quickly.




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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, rfil, ntgr

Welcome to Wednesday

And the Yankees are doing great!



Have a good day trading, and feel free to post in "Comments".

And if you are bored, check out my links on the lower right.

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Tags:
trader-x

Tuesday's charts

posted by Tom C:

Last week I posted the chart of CTB and talked about the "U" set-up. LEH provided a variation of that today, with an entry above the 4th bar high (the 4th bar was a narrow range, inside bar and above the OR high).





PSYS was a late-day trade with a textbook hammer at support from a rising MA, closing just above the OR high. It made a nice rally into the close.





Don't forget to read X's post on finding gaps right below this one.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, leh, psys

Finding gaps - 091206

This is an update to past posts on finding gaps. The catalyst for creating a new list was INET switching their "Top Lists" format. You can read about it in the post titled "It appears INET/NASDAQTrader.com sucks...".

One thing to remember is if you are trading 30-minute charts - and you don't trade the first bar - you have an entire hour after the open to compile your "watch list" for the day. If you are trading 15-minute charts - and you don't trade the first bar - you have an entire 30-minutes after the open to compile your "watch list" for the day.

So for those of you who think you have to know what the gaps are at least 30-minutes before the open, YOU DON'T.

Now the question is, where do you find gaps? The first and most obvious source that the majority of people have access to is the ticker on CNBC. I watch it from 30 minutes before the open to the actual open. You can see what is trading up and down in the pre-market, and by how much.

The next source for me is my trading software - RealTick. I have a "Market Minder" window that lists pre-market % gainers and losers.

The next source is Briefing.com. They give an abbreviated list of stocks "Gapping Up" and "Gapping Down" with associated percentages. If you do not have or want a subscription to Briefing.com, you can visit Trader Mike's blog and read his morning "Watchlist" post; he publishes the information there.

The next source is Quote.com's "Unfilled Gaps" list; you can toggle between NASDAQ and NYSE. I look at this list about 30 minutes after the market opens.

The next source is Prophet.net. I run two scans - one for gaps above the previous day's high and one for gaps below the previous day's low. The basic membership is free, and you can run two scans. I do this about 30-45 minutes after the market opens.

Finally, my trading software (again RealTick) has "Market Minder" windows for "Gap Open Up" and "Gap Open Down". I incorporate any new stocks into my watchlist about 30-45 minutes after the market opens.

There are other sources, and you can find some of them in "Comments" of the posts noted above and below. And, if you find any more great sources, feel free to list them in "Comments" here.

But realistically you can get everything you need from CNBC, Prophet.net, and Quote.com. In fact, you will probably get MORE than you need. Keep in mind you will NEVER get all of the gappers - nor would you want to; it would be difficult to manage a watchlist of 100-200 stocks every day. Accept that you will always miss something, and focus on finding the really good set-ups from the list that you have.

edit - here is an honorable mention - CNNMoney.com's (pre-market) Most Active.

edit - check out my post on Trade-Ideas as another source.


Reference: Previous "Finding gaps" post.

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Tags:
trader-x, stocks, trading, gaps

Tuesday's action

Back to a full day today. Charts later...feel free to post your trades in "Comments".

Go make some good trades!



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Tags:
Trader-X

Spot the trade

Light posting today - but here is this week's installment of "Spot the trade".

Answer the three questions on your own.

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Tags:
Trader-X, Stocks, Fibonacci, Trading, MU

09/11/06

A little late posting this one...

But can you say Emmy, bitch?

I told you guys during season one that this was the best 30-minutes on TV!



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tags:
trader-x, entourage

Brilliant!

HOMER GETS AN OFFER HE CAN’T REFUSE
ON THE 18th SEASON PREMIERE OF “THE SIMPSONS”
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, ON FOX

"THE SOPRANOS" STARS MICHAEL IMPERIOLI AND JOE PANTOLIANO, AND LEGENDARY BAND METALLICA MAKE GUEST-VOICE APPEARANCES

After Lisa befriends Fat Tony’s (Joe Mantegna, reprising his role as Springfield’s infamous mob boss) son Michael, Fat Tony invites the Simpsons over for dinner as a sign of gratitude. Shockingly, Fat Tony is shot by a rival family moments after Michael admits he would rather be a chef than take over the family business. Fat Tony’s main thugs, Dante and Dante Jr. (guest voices Joe Pantoliano and Michael Imperioli), want Michael to be the new kingpin, but when he declines, Homer steps up and leads the family on a major mob spree in ”The Mook, The Chef, The Wife and Her Homer,” the 18th season premiere episode of THE SIMPSONS, Sunday, Sept. 10 (8:00-8:30 PM ET/PT) on FOX. (SI-1715) (TV-PG; S, V) CC

Guest Voice Cast: Joe Mantegna as Fat Tony; Michael Imperioli as Dante Jr.; Metallica as Themselves and Joe Pantoliano as Dante.



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tags:
trader-x, the simpsons

Friday's charts

A few of you mentioned EFX in "Comments" on Friday. I passed on it because (as X would say) the 1st bar was too wide range. But looking back at the chart - apart from the wide range 1st bar - it was a textbook set-up. The 2nd and 3rd bars stayed at the top of the 1st bar's range. The 3rd bar closed strong and offset the 2nd bar's red body. And the 3rd bar was a narrow range, inside bar. So, good trade!





One I did trade was CTB (30-minute chart). I like this set-up - it is like a "U" where price declines and moves back up with the 2nd and 3rd bars printing higher lows and higher highs, and the third bar closing strong. The only issue is that the 3rd bar closed below the opening range (OR) high, so X's standard disclaimer applies*.




*as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension.

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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, efx, ctb

Finish the week strong!

posted by Tom C:

The Andre Agassi post (below) by X is really fitting.

Post your trades in "Comments" - I will post some charts over the weekend.

Don't forget to vote for the "Stock Pimp of 2006".

And check out X's links on the bottom right. That python picture is crazy.

Andre Agassi - a life lesson

I have gotten a few emails asking why I like Andre Agassi so much.

First, I like tennis. I like playing it and I like watching it. It is exciting, challenging, and a lot of fun.

Second, Andre Agassi is the first real athlete in any sport who I followed through their entire career. He was coming about at the time I was "mature" enough to pay attention and appreciate the game he was playing and how he played it. He was exciting, talented, a little cocky, and very entertaining. But there was something more - I still remember him overturning points called in his favor that were clearly his opponents; he wanted to win but did it with honor.

Over the years I watched him "grow up". He became #1. But he was very human - he struggled with the challenges we all struggle with, and tumbled from #1 to #141. But then he fought his way back to the top. His cocky "rebel" image changed to that of a legend, and an ambassador for the sport. And the people grew to love him - perhaps more than any other player who has ever played the game. It didn't matter if he was in the U.S. or England or France.

Which brings me to my third and most important point - Andre Agassi has HEART. He may not be the best tennis player ever, although his record speaks for itself. He is one of only five to win all four Grand Slam singles events during his career, and he is the only player in my lifetime to win every Grand Slam singles title, the Tennis Masters Cup, the Davis Cup, and an Olympic gold medal. Still, he may not be the best. But his heart makes him one of the (maybe THE) greatest ever.

And that is a life lesson we can all learn - approaching what you do with heart can make all of the difference between success and failure. Regardless of whether you play tennis, trade stocks, or raise your kids; if you do it with HEART you can overcome almost any obstacle.





P.S. - I didn't even mention that he is one of the few athletes that can actually be considered a role-model. Or his charitable ventures that he has become famous for...

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tags:
trader-x, andre agassi

NRPH - 090706; 30-minute chart

posted by Tom C:



This was similar to the "later in the day" trade X posted yesterday.

I entered on a break of the 7th bar low. The 7th bar was the narrowest of the day, closed below the OR low, and was bumping into resistance from the declining MA.

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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, nrph

Spot the trade

posted by Tom C:



X is traveling this afternoon, so I thought I would post the weekly installment of "Spot the trade".

I hope everyone is having a profitable week. More later...

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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, chic

Thursday's action

Here is a thought...if you could only make one trade today - take one set-up - would it be THAT one? Or would you wait for something better?

Charts after the close.

And go vote for "Stock Pimp of 2006" on Tale of the Tape.

And, don't forget to check out my links on the lower right.

Finally, check out "Comments" on my last INET post for some gap sources. I will try to compile a list next week.

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tags:
trader-x

Viewer Mail - consistency

Jim sent the following question via email:

"Several trading blogs (for example - Ugly's) have been talking about how tough trading was in August. Certainly there are months or periods when the overall volatility in the stock market declines and there may be fewer opportunities. I don't recall seeing you post on the topic of trading consistency month-to-month. I'm not even sure if you keep such records or statistics.

With the selectivity of your entries (for higher win rates), do you find periods or months where the number of opportunities is greatly reduced, or where the follow thru after entry is limited? For example, did you experience this in August? and if so, do you do anything differently during these periods (like take more time away from the market, etc)?"

I never see a reduction of opportunities. As I have said before, I look at probably 50-100 charts every day after the close - and almost every day without fail I find more set-ups I missed than I actually traded. This does not frustrate me, though - it gives me a lot of confidence that my "trading style" works. The day I look at 100 charts after the close and don't find set-ups I missed will be the day I start worrying!

But - to your other point - I do see a lack of follow-through at times. It "comes and goes", and that is why I preach taking fewer high quality set-ups so you can monitor your positions. When you can "properly" monitor your positions, you keep winners from turning into losers, and you can see obvious reversals or problem areas that will cause you to close your position with a profit. Even though it is a smaller profit (if trades are not hitting the targets) it is a profit nonetheless.

(another way to deal with the lack of follow-through is to focus on 30-minute charts)

The fact that I primarily trade "gappers" means I am trading stocks that are moving because of some event - so that usually keeps me in stocks with the best potential. I don't pay much attention to the overall market or even what it is doing intra-day; I could be in a short when the market is rallying, or vice-versa.

My profits are relatively smooth month-to-month. In fact, I think I limit myself subconsciously because my monthly figures ARE consistent, and while I have a few months where I blow out the average, I should have many months where I do so. That is something I am trying to address now. After all, the only thing that really limits us is ourselves!

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tags:
trader-x, trading

Wednesday's charts

A few short trades today:

KOMG, 30-minute chart - an entry on a break of the third bar low. The third bar closed weak and below the OR low, leaving a long upper tail. It was also the NRM. The target was the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's high to the OR low, but price reversed just short of that area. I covered on a break of the eleventh bar high. Note - some of you may have entered on a break of the fourth bar low, which was a more conservative entry.




SUN, 30-minute chart - this is a "later in the day" trade that many of you request. SUN gapped down and had a brief rally with the second and third bars before turning back down. The fifth-ninth bars formed a tight narrow range, bumping against but failing to break through the declining MA. I entered on a break of the ninth bar (narrow range, inside bar) low and closed the position at the end of the day for $1+ gain.



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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, komg, sun

Hump day - already!

Go make some good trades, and feel free to post in "Comments".

FYI - there have been blogger problems over the past few days - it is slow, there are problems posting, and there are problems making comments. So, keep that in mind and be patient.

And don't forget to check out my links on the lower right - they are not necessarily trading related, and will help you pass the time if you are looking for something to do (after all, everyone likes the exact same stuff I do - right?).




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tags:
trader-x, crocodile hunter

PD - 090506; 30-minute chart

PD did not live up to its potential, but was still profitable. The entry was a break of the fourth bar high, that bar having found support at the retracement zone of the previous day's low to the opening range high.

There are some good trades in "Comments" on the previous post - check them out (specifically CHAP and TIE).

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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, pd

HSY - 090506; 30-minute chart

[Blogger is having technical problems - the chart may not be clear]

1.) What did I see?
A gap down and wide range first bar that closes red. The second and third bars are inside, narrow range bars with the third bar being the narrowest of the morning (NRM). Both the second and third bars are in the lower half of the first bar's range.
2.) What is the entry?
A break of the third bar low*.
3.) What is the exit?
The position was closed at the Fibonacci extension of the previous day's high to the opening range low.

Set-up grade = B; the entry was above the OR low. I also did not like the long lower tail on the first bar, but it was somewhat negated by the action of the second and third bars described above.

*as with any entry below/above a previous high/low (in the case of my charts, the opening range (OR) high/low), you need to watch for resistance/support as price approaches those levels. If it stalls, you want to exit. If it breaks through, the odds are good you will have a move to the corresponding Fibonacci extension. HSY breaks decisively through the OR low on the fourth bar.

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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, hsy

It appears INET/NASDAQTrader.com sucks...

After numerous emails back and forth to the INET/NASDAQTrader.com guys, I am being told that the INET Top Lists will no longer be available in the format that it was on the INET site. There will be no "% Change" column, and now it appears there is no pre-market data either.

I was first told it would be the same at the new NASDAQTrader.com site as it was at the old INET site. Then I was told you had to pay $14 to get the same information. Now I am told that the information will not be the same regardless.

So, it appears they do not know what is going on. And it appears that they have taken away a great tool. I would even be willing to pay for it - but if they changed the format, it is useless.

The question is - why would they change (TAKE AWAY functionality from) a great tool for so many traders? It really makes no sense.

If you want to write them on your own, email tradingservices[AT]nasdaq[DOT]com. Again, the key questions are:
1.) Can I get the Top Lists in the same format as it used to be (before 09/01/06) on the old INET site?
2.) Is there a charge for it?
3.) Why did you change it (take away functionality)?

If you get different information, please post it in "Comments".

Also, please post any new gap sources you use in "Comments" and I will compile a list of the best ones. You can find my current information on gap sources here.

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tags:
trader-x, inet, nasdaqtrader.com

Welcome to a new week!

I hope everyone had a relaxing day off.



A few things:

1.) I am in touch with the INET guys about the Top Lists - I will make a post later today.
2.) I added my links from del.icio.us on the lower right sidebar. If you are bored during the day you can check them out for some interesting reading/viewing.

Feel free to post your trades in "Comments". Charts later...

Blog appearance question

If you are viewing the blog in IE, does everything on the right sidebar below "Previous Posts" appear in italic print? And, in the actual posts, does everything from yesterday back appear in italic print?

It looks fine in Firefox, but it may look different in IE. Post in "Comments" what you see.

Thanks.

edit - if you are using IE, please continue to post what you see in "Comments". Please let me know about the issues I note above (and any others you might see); let me know if they appear that way to you, or if everything looks normal. I have had over 2,000 page views since I originally posted this message, but only a handful of people have commented. Come on!!!!!

I will try to work on any issues today. Of course, the best thing for you to do is download Firefox for free - it is the best browser and will give you the best browsing experience!

090506 - I think it is fixed. But, if you see any problems post them in "Comments". Thanks!

Accolades...

If you remember, our friend Trader Mike was interviewed in TASC a few months ago.

I hate to steal his thunder - to "show him up" - but this blog got some sweet recognition that Trader Mike can only hope for...





(thanks to Donny who was obviously bored today!!!)

Viewer Mail - BMY

I received an email about BMY's chart on Friday, and noticed someone also posted about it in "Comments".

Here is the chart - I will give my thoughts later but would like to solicit a few opinions from the readers - why would you have - or have not - taken the trade on a break of the third bar high?

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tags:
trader-x, stocks, fibonacci, trading, bmy